This weekend’s Honolulu Star-Advertiser Hawaii poll brought a raft of surprising findings. Appointed Democratic Sen. Brian Schatz is trailing Democratic Rep. Colleen Hanabusa in their closely-watched primary matchup, and Democratic Gov. Neil Abercrombie, who appointed Schatz to the Senate and was succeeded in the House by Hanabusa, is losing to […] Read more »
It’s Always Tough to Win on the Road
As you may have seen, Gallup recently released their 2013 State of the States Report, allowing us to examine voters’ attitudes toward the President at the statewide level and thus allowing for greater insight into the political environment in key 2014 Senate states. … So, what can we take away […] Read more »
Congressional Republicans focused on calming their divided ranks
After a tumultuous week of party infighting and leadership stumbles, congressional Republicans are now focused on calming their divided ranks in the months ahead, mostly by touting proposals that have wide backing within the GOP and shelving any big-ticket legislation for the rest of the year. … GOP brass in […] Read more »
What This Chevy Commercial Could Teach the GOP
To understand the rolling demographic and cultural trends threatening the GOP in presidential elections, a good place to start might be with the polychromatic ads Chevrolet is running during the Olympics. … Chevy’s latest ads, under the title “The New Us,” celebrate the transformation of the American family into a […] Read more »
Toward a Perfectly Partisan House
After the 2012 elections, there were only 26 members of the U.S. House who were elected from districts that their party’s presidential candidate didn’t win in the 2012 election. … After the 2014 election, it’s possible — perhaps even likely — that there will be even fewer crossover members of […] Read more »
2014 House Forecast Update: No Wave in Sight
The results of a simple but extremely accurate midterm election forecasting model indicate that the 2014 U.S. House elections are likely to result in minimal change in the party balance of power. The forecasting model uses three predictors — the current party balance of power in the House, the results […] Read more »