The results of a simple but extremely accurate midterm election forecasting model indicate that the 2014 U.S. House elections are likely to result in minimal change in the party balance of power. The forecasting model uses three predictors — the current party balance of power in the House, the results of the last presidential election and the relative standing of the two parties on the generic ballot question, a national poll that asks voters which party they prefer in their local House race. CONT.
Alan Abramowitz (Emory), Sabato’s Crystal Ball