… Florida has been polled so densely that the overall trend has become clear: Mr. Romney has made larger-than-average gains in the state since the Denver debate, and has now become a definitive favorite there. … Mr. Romney’s gains in Florida call into question how vigorously the campaigns should be […] Read more »
How we misread the numbers that dominate our politics
… In politics and beyond, we often use numbers to validate our intuitions and to measure the vagaries of life, yet we know that these numbers are often imprecise. And perhaps more than any prior election, this year’s race has shown how easily numbers can be abused, exploited or misconstrued. The […] Read more »
Ranking The Battleground States
With the national polls deadlocked, nine battleground states appear poised to determine the next president. … So what battleground states are best for Romney or Obama? Several states are pretty tough to distinguish and I’ll probably flip on a few of these by Election Day, but here are the nine […] Read more »
Obama closing on progress or future
With the election campaign reaching the eve of the last debate, President Obama has talked extensively about his future plans in the very successful second debate, and has aired an ad narrated by Morgan Freeman, talking about progress made in the last four years and concluding, “The last thing we […] Read more »
An Electoral College tie – and what it would mean
The presidential race appears to be getting closer just two and a half weeks before voters will cast the deciding ballots. And more and more, political analysts are suggesting that it’s a very real possibility that nobody will win on Election Day — i.e. the Electoral College vote will wind […] Read more »
Confused by all the polls? Pollsters explain the variation
As recently as two weeks ago, political prognosticators were looking at polls and declaring, “If Romney would have to pull off a miracle to close the gap in national polling, he has no shot at matching the president in the electoral college.” This week, with Gallup polling showing Mitt Romney […] Read more »