… The notion that Romney still had “momentum” weeks after his early October gains in the polls has now been debunked by numerous commentators and academics. And while that pushback is increasingly reflected in campaign-trail accounts, it is worth taking a closer look at why coverage of Romney’s “momentum” went […] Read more »
2012 U.S. Electorate Looks Like 2008
The composition of the electorate for the 2012 presidential election is looking quite similar to what it was in 2008 as well as 2004, according to an analysis of the demographics of Gallup’s likely voter sample since Oct. 1. Thus, key elements of President Obama’s electoral coalition, such as racial […] Read more »
Election May Hinge on Get-Out-the-Vote Efforts
… In its final stretch, the presidential race is coming down to only a few states—and a handful of key dynamics. Romney is running largely the same campaign everywhere, with a message centered on arguments both ideological (government is too big and expensive) and pragmatic (the results of Obama’s past […] Read more »
If Obama Loses, Blame the Debates
Before the first presidential debate, it was easy to say that the face-offs usually don’t matter that much. One had to go back to 1976, 1980, and 1984 to find examples of a debate having a material effect on a presidential election. But that first debate earlier this month—specifically, Mitt […] Read more »
24% Of Americans Know About Romney’s Recent Statements On Abortion Policy
… The first hurdle in gathering evidence that campaign events matter in voter behavior and election outcomes is to measure how many people are even aware that a campaign event, one that is treated as noteworthy by the campaigns, the media, and advocacy groups, took place. … Over the past […] Read more »
Obama, Romney tied in Co., incumbent has narrow Nev. edge
The race between President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney is locked in a dead heat in Colorado, while the president maintains a narrow edge in the other Western swing state of Nevada. Obama and Romney are tied at 48 percent among likely voters in Colorado, according to the […] Read more »