… There is still no guarantee that the economy is on a stable path to recovery, given its structural problems and the false starts of the last few years. But the odds that the recovery has finally begun have never been higher. Which is one more reason the presidential campaign, […] Read more »
Romney, Obama could split popular and electoral college vote, polls suggest
Most polls at this moment suggest GOP nominee Mitt Romney is in the lead nationally, but surveys in the nine or so swing states are registering a narrow advantage for President Obama. So here’s a prospect worth contemplating: What if Romney carries the popular vote, but Obama regains the presidency […] Read more »
How Will the Undecideds Break?
… I don’t really trust voters to tell pollsters when they have made a decision. Much of our decision-making is essentially subconscious. Instead, I am going to assume that undecided voters will gravitate to the choice that their preexisting opinions would predict. This assumption is actually a well-known finding in research […] Read more »
Are the Polls Undercounting Latino Obama Backers?
If President Barack Obama loses big Eastern states like Florida and Ohio on November 6, Western swing states like Colorado and Nevada could help him hold on to the White House. Polls in Colorado and Nevada make the states look like anything but sure bets for the president, but there’s […] Read more »
CNN Poll: Obama 50%-Romney 46% in Ohio
With a week and a half to go until Election Day, a new poll indicates the race for arguably the most important battleground state remains very close. According to a CNN/ORC International survey released Friday, President Barack Obama holds a four point advantage over Republican nominee Mitt Romney in the […] Read more »
Why Don’t These Voters Decide? Some Like To Mull
Who are these people who still can’t make up their minds? … Persuadable voters are more likely to trust Romney to do a better job handling the economy and the federal budget deficit, the AP-GfK poll shows. And they’re about as comfortable with Romney as they are with Obama on foreign […] Read more »