Has President Obama’s convention bounce reached its peak? On Monday, his position declined slightly in our forecast for the first time since Aug. 27. To be sure, Mr. Obama had a fairly strong day of polling on Monday relative to the long-term baseline. But the data was a little bit […] Read more »
President Obama’s polling and focus-group chief offers rare public perspective on state of race
As head of polling and focus group research for President Obama, David Simas of Taunton says he’s “like a human nerve-ending” because of the dizzying array of numbers and videotape he constantly scans. … Simas made several public appearances during the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, N.C., including one at […] Read more »
Many Key Indicators Better Than When Obama Took Office
Many key economic and mood indicators are more positive now than in February 2009 when President Barack Obama first took office. However, there have been significant ups and downs during his 44 months as president. [cont.] Frank Newport, Gallup Read more »
The Unexpected Impact of Coded Appeals
… [R]ecent research by political scientists … suggests that racial and cultural anxieties actually have their greatest political influence on better-educated whites. … So why is racial animus more politicized among well-educated whites? The simple answer is that education imparts social and political knowledge that prepares people to better read […] Read more »
Among likely voters, Obama-Romney close
Last week’s Democratic convention helped President Obama improve his standing against Republican Mitt Romney with all voters but failed to change underlying public perceptions of his job performance, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. Among the smaller, more rigorous, sample of likely voters the presidential race remains exceedingly […] Read more »
Obama gets a lift, Romney flatlines in post convention polling
President Obama has gotten a bounce in the national tracking polls taken in the aftermath of the Democratic national convention. I maintain that our ability to judge whether this bounce has changed the trajectory of the race cannot be known until 15 September. What we can tell now, though, is […] Read more »