Has President Obama’s convention bounce reached its peak? On Monday, his position declined slightly in our forecast for the first time since Aug. 27.
To be sure, Mr. Obama had a fairly strong day of polling on Monday relative to the long-term baseline. But the data was a little bit more equivocal than in polls released over the weekend — which may suggest, at least, that he will make few further gains in the polls. [cont.]
Nate Silver, New York Times