We are still about a year out from anyone voting in any 2024 presidential primaries, but primary-poll-a-palooza is well underway. … But basing one’s assessment of what could happen on horse-race polls now is folly. Anyone following horse-race polls now is basically like a cat chasing a laser: You think […] Read more »
In explaining the rise of populism, it’s not economic anxiety vs. identity politics – it’s both
Deindustrialization has decimated the blue-collar workforce in the US. … Our research examines the effects of deindustrialization on electoral politics. Specifically, we explore how deindustrialization affected voting in three US presidential elections (2008-2016), using county-level data which captures localized manufacturing job losses. Our argument is that responses to what we […] Read more »
White working-class politics
Analysts have been debating the politics of America’s white working-class for years with little net increase in knowledge. The whole discussion assumes a fact not fully in evidence — that membership in the “white working-class” is a politically relevant identity; that it is causally related to voting behavior. Maybe, but […] Read more »
How Stable Is the Democratic Coalition?
… The 2020 presidential election results illustrate a clear edge for Democrats among nonwhite voters. Exit poll data show that just 32 percent of Hispanics and Latinos, 34 percent of Asian-Americans and 12 percent of Black respondents voted for former President Donald Trump. Data from AP VoteCast Survey put those […] Read more »
The Battle for the Battleground States
The last two successful Democratic candidates for president, President Barack Obama in 2012 and former Vice President Joe Biden in 2020, each won the national popular vote with 51 percent of the vote and beat their GOP opponent by four points (51-47). Yet, we also know these similar national popular […] Read more »
The political winds in the U.S. are swirling
Democrats (and pollsters) predicted a mighty gust blowing the country left this year, in response to the rightward gale that swept President Trump into office. Instead of a corresponding tempest, however, the country barely puffed just enough in a few places to lift Joe Biden up. CONT. Tim Meko, Joe […] Read more »