We are still about a year out from anyone voting in any 2024 presidential primaries, but primary-poll-a-palooza is well underway. …
But basing one’s assessment of what could happen on horse-race polls now is folly. Anyone following horse-race polls now is basically like a cat chasing a laser: You think you know where the race stands, and then it moves. …
The 2012 Republican primary race is a great illustration of how amusingly unstable primary preferences—and therefore horse-race polls—can be, even as the primary contests approach. One candidate after another, from Rick Perry to Herman Cain, started in single digits, surged ahead of eventual nominee Mitt Romney in polling averages, and then fell back as the next candidate surged—a total of five times. CONTINUED
Natalie Jackson, National Journal
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