Majority of public opposed to overturning Roe v. Wade, yet closely divided on 15-week abortion limit

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Forty-nine years after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in favor of a constitutional right to abortion, the public opposes overturning the 1973 Roe v. Wade ruling but is closely divided on limiting abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy.

A new Marquette Law School Poll national Supreme Court survey finds that, among those with an opinion on Roe, 28% say they are in favor of overturning the decision and 72% are opposed to overturning it. The case before the Court that includes argument for overturning Roe, Dobbs v Jackson Women’s Health Organization, concerns a Mississippi law that restricts abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy. Asked about that specific restriction, among those with an opinion, 49% favor that limitation on abortion, while 51% oppose it. …

Approval of the U.S. Supreme Court remains evenly divided, with 52% approving and 46% disapproving. Approval declined from 60% in July to 49% in September and has changed little since then. CONTINUED

Marquette Law School Poll

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‘Hell Hath No Fury Like a Voter Scorned’: What 14 Swing Voters Have to Say

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A year into the Biden administration, most of us can agree on one thing: The United States remains a deeply divided nation, with polarizing opinions on all sides. But what about the voices from the middle, the independents? Swing voters are arguably one of the most consequential groups for the midterm elections, so we wanted to hear from them about how they view President Biden’s first year and the current state of American democracy.

So this month Times Opinion, with help from the veteran G.O.P pollster Frank Luntz, convened a focus group of 14 self-identified independents and moderates to get their perspectives. CONTINUED

Jane Coaston, New York Times

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New Democratic strategy: Repackage the BBB and expect a different result

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What’s worse than seeing sausage being made? Watching Democratic leaders lurch from issue to issue trying to reinvent a winning legislative strategy in the Washington equivalent of a Macy’s window. It’s not pretty.

Anyone who doubts that assertion need only listen one more time to President Joe Biden’s destructive and divisive “voting rights” speech, the tone of which was so vitriolic that even some Democrats felt the need to disavow it. But it appears the White House and Democratic Hill leaders have only one play in their playbook. CONTINUED

David Winston (Winston Group), Roll Call

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What was Joe Biden supposed to do in his first year?

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We have now entered the phase when political observers on both sides of the aisle are chiming in about how and why President Joe Biden screwed up during his first year in office. …

Biden’s biggest problem is that he made lots of promises — promises that he couldn’t keep without the cooperation of Capitol Hill. Given the makeup of the House and Senate and the refusal of a couple of Democrats to change Senate rules, that was never in the cards.

Biden is now stuck in a nearly impossible position. Swing voters and moderates think he is too liberal and that he is responsible for inflation, hasn’t handled the coronavirus well and hasn’t dealt effectively with a range of other issues. Democrats and progressives, on the other hand, are frustrated that many of his promises are unfulfilled. CONTINUED

Stuart Rothenberg, Roll Call

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Sometimes polls are both accurate and say things you don’t like

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On Tuesday, Pew Research Center published a poll that had unhappy news for President Biden. His approval rating had declined from 59 percent in April to 41 percent now, driven lower in large part by a decline in approval from Democrats from 95 percent to 76 percent. And that, in turn, was correlated to declines in Democrats’ confidence in Biden’s ability to handle the pandemic, make good decisions on the economy or bring the country together.

Obviously, most Democrats still view Biden positively. Just less so than before, including a decline in the percentage of members of his party who say they strongly approve of the job he’s doing. And particularly since this was a Pew poll — a firm with a strong track record carefully collecting the opinions of thousands of Americans — the finding was newsworthy. So I wrote about it.

And people got very annoyed. CONTINUED

Philip Bump, Washington Post

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Republicans and Democrats alike view Russia more as a competitor than an enemy of the U.S.

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Amid tensions between the United States and Russia over a possible military invasion of Ukraine, Republicans and Democrats are largely in agreement about the threats posed by Russia, according to a new survey by Pew Research Center. The survey was conducted Jan. 10-17, prior to the U.S. putting troops on higher alert and NATO announcing that member countries would be sending military support to the region. CONTINUED

Amina Dunn, Pew Research Center

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