Russia may be about to invade Ukraine. Russians don’t want it to.

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The White House just warned that there is a “distinct possibility” that Russia will invade Ukraine in a “very swift time frame.” More than 100,000 Russian troops are now massed near Ukraine on three sides.

But what does the Russian public think about armed intervention in Ukraine? This question is important. Even though Russia is an autocracy, its leaders pay attention to public sentiment. Our new polling data suggests that invading Ukraine could be a difficult sell within Russia. CONTINUED

Henry E. Hale, Ora John Reuter, Bryn Rosenfeld, David Szakonyi & Katerina Tertytchnaya, Monkey Cage

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Between Russia and Ukraine, Americans say either stay out or side with Ukraine

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A slight majority of Americans would prefer the U.S. stay out of any negotiations around the situation with Russia and Ukraine, while those who would take a side say the U.S. should stand with Ukraine. They cite stopping further Russian influence in the region and defending democracy as top reasons.

The proportion saying that the U.S. should stay out is driven by Republicans and independents, while more Democrats feel the U.S. should side with Ukraine. Meanwhile, President Biden gets mixed marks on his approach toward Russia. CONTINUED

Jennifer De Pinto, CBS News

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No way forward

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Biden’s approval numbers have been consistently underwater since mid-December, driven by dual disillusionments: the resurgence of COVID and rapidly rising inflation, which now sits at a 40-year high. As our core political tracking data shows, Biden’s mainstay was COVID – his fortunes rose and fell along with how he is perceived to be handling the coronavirus pandemic.

But this time around, even as COVID cases and hospitalizations drop, his overall approval rating hasn’t recovered. This might have to do with the fact that Americans now feel that COVID will be with us for the foreseeable future. As the latest Axios-Ipsos Coronavirus Index tracker tells us, a majority think COVID will not be eradicated this year. What’s more, they are in a clear muddle on how best to move forward. CONTINUED

Clifford Young & Catherine Morris, Ipsos

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Dems’ Problems Bigger Than Redistricting

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A question I’m getting asked a lot these days is: “What does President Biden need to do to turn this midterm election around?” To many, it seems like a political version of a Rubik’s Cube, a puzzle ready and waiting to be solved with the right approach. Don’t be so sure. …

While it is true that Democrats do seem to have escaped a tsunami in reapportionment and redistricting, their fundamental political troubles heading into the midterm elections have little to do with either reapportionment or redistricting.

The overall political environment, including Biden’s low job-approval ratings and a big disparity in enthusiasm levels between more-energized Republicans and more-lethargic Democrats, continue to be much greater threats. The potential for a wave election has nothing to do with ink on a map and everything to do with voters’ broader concerns. CONTINUED

Charlie Cook

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COVID and Americans’ Trust in Government

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A recent in-depth review published in the prestigious British medical journal The Lancet, in part using Gallup World Poll data, demonstrated a significant correlation between trust in government and COVID-19 infections. The review looked at COVID-related outcomes, trust in government and interpersonal trust (along with many other variables) across 177 countries. The analysis and results were complex, with the usual caveats and statistical cautions — but in the end, the authors concluded that “higher levels of trust (government and interpersonal) had large, statistically significant associations with fewer infections for the entire study period.” CONTINUED

Frank Newport, Gallup

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Polling on Issues People Know Little About Creates Illusion of Public Opinion

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… While the general presidential approval rating provides some relevant insight into public opinion, the same cannot be said for presidential approval questions that focus on individual issues. …

Media polls get virtually all respondents to answer a question, regardless of whether they actually have an opinion, by the way in which questions are phrased. They often use a “forced-choice” format, which provides explicit answers like “approve” or “disapprove,” but fails to provide an explicit “unsure” or “don’t know” option. CONTINUED

David W. Moore, FAIR

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