Why polls may be underestimating Republicans

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Most polls you’re looking at right now are likely underestimating Republicans’ position heading into the midterm election cycle. It’s not that the polls are “wrong.” Rather, it’s that most polls at this point are asking all registered voters who they’re going to vote for in November, when it’s likely only a distinct subset of voters who will cast a ballot.

The voters who will actually turn out for the fall election are likely going to be disproportionately Republican based on current polling data and history. CONTINUED

Harry Enten, CNN

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NRCC Hispanic Battleground Congressional District Survey Findings

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This installment of the NRCC Battleground Survey Project is a deep dive on a key target group: Hispanic voters. The survey looked at 47 battleground districts that have a sizable percentage of Hispanic voters and will determine control of Congress ahead of the 2022 midterm election.

According to 2020 exit polls, Hispanic voters nationwide voted Democrat over Republican in congressional races by a wide margin (63%-36%). That advantage has been severely diminished. Hispanic voters are moving decisively away from Democrats.

Our survey found Republicans have made substantial gains among Hispanic voters in battleground districts, cutting the Democrat advantage on the generic congressional ballot to 44% Democrat – 37% Republican. CONTINUED — pdf

Rob Autry (Meeting Street Research), David Kanevsky (3D Strategic Research), Patrick Lanne (Public Opinion Strategies), B.J. Martino & Dave Sackett (Tarrance Group), NRCC

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The Empathy Factor

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With the State of the Union right around the corner, and President Biden mired in his fifth straight month of abysmal job approval ratings, lots of Democrats are offering advice to help the president turn things around before the midterms. …

All of this advice is coming up on a pretty hard economic reality. Americans’ views of the economy aren’t likely to get better until they see that inflation improves. I’ve yet to sit in a focus group where the issue of the rising costs of groceries, rent or gas didn’t come up. In fact, many of the participants can tell you, to the dollar, how much more they spent at the gas station or the grocery store this week than they did a year ago. CONTINUED

Amy Walter, Cook Political Report with Amy Walter

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How news consumption impacts views of the pandemic

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We often describe America as existing in a split reality, with public opinion divided neatly along partisan lines. Yet as our polling data reveals, where Americans get their information can be just as determinative of where they stand on the pandemic as partisanship.

Naturally, there’s a strong overlap between what news Americans consume and what their core beliefs are. People tend to gravitate towards sources that reinforce their particular point of view, which then becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy as fact, spin and belief all collide to form a closed loop.

Perspectives become even more complicated when news source overlaps with partisanship. CONTINUED

Clifford Young & Catherine Morris, Ipsos

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State of the Rockies Project: Spike in Concern Over Drought, Wildfires and Climate Change

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Colorado College’s 12th annual State of the Rockies Project Conservation in the West Poll released today showed a spike in concern over issues like drought, inadequate water supplies, wildfires, the loss of wildlife habitats and natural spaces, and climate change among voters in the Mountain West. Those concerns align with continued strong support for pro-conservation policies.

The poll, which surveyed the views of voters in eight Mountain West states (Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming), found 69 percent of voters are concerned about the future of nature, meaning land, water, air, and wildlife. …

Voters in the Mountain West prefer clean sources of energy. 66 percent of voters support gradually transitioning to one hundred percent of our energy being produced from clean, renewable sources like solar and wind over the next ten to fifteen years. CONTINUED — pdf

Colorado College

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Is McConnell Finally Poised To Make His Move?

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Some see a fight bubbling up for the heart and soul of the Republican Party between former President Donald Trump and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. But despite Trump calling McConnell names like “old crow,” don’t believe that this feud is fundamentally personal.

Rather, longtime McConnell watchers suggest the Kentuckian’s motivations are just what we learned in The Godfather: “It’s not personal, it’s strictly business.” …

Whichever party the 2022 midterm elections are ultimately about will lose. If the election is about Biden and what the Democratic majorities did or didn’t do, they will lose. But if the election is about Trump, or about Republican candidates (the kind I refer to as “exotic;” McConnell as “goofballs”) then this election will turn out very badly for the GOP. CONTINUED

Charlie Cook

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