America’s role in the Russia and Ukraine situation

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Most Americans are paying at least some attention to the increased tensions between Russia and Ukraine. While most of the public thinks the United States should have a role in the situation, they are more likely to say it should be a minor role rather than a major one.

About 4 in 10 Americans approve of the way President Joe Biden is handling foreign policy and the United States’ relationship with Russia. Fifty-three percent are concerned that Russia’s influence around the world poses a threat to the United States.

Only about a quarter have a great deal of confidence in the U.S. government’s intelligence agencies. More than 4 in 10 have a great deal of confidence in the military, although confidence is declining. CONTINUED

AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research

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Moderates or extremists?

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… Replicating similar results in other research, Stanford’s Andrew Hall found, “When an extremist … wins a ‘coin-flip’ election over a more moderate candidate, the party’s general-election vote share decreases on average by approximately 9–13 percentage points.”

While some argue the benefits of moderation have declined in recent years, I assumed that most people engaged in the political process would agree with the proposition that moderates have some advantage over extremists (albeit not in primaries).

So, imagine my surprise after reading a study of local party leaders by David Broockman, also of Stanford, and colleagues. They found that county party chairs preferred candidates who were ideologically extreme over moderates. CONTINUED

Mark Mellman (Mellman Group), The Hill

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Republicans view Putin more favorably than they do leading Democrats

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Russian President Vladimir Putin operates within a well-established political framework. He is an autocrat with near-unilateral control over his country. Russia has elections, but no one is under the impression that the results will be allowed to pose a threat to Putin’s power. Personal freedoms are constrained significantly; opponents of Putin’s regime have a habit of succumbing to sudden illness and accidents.

Yet American Republicans view him slightly more positively than they do leading Democratic officials. Between Putin and President Biden, it’s a toss-up that leans in Putin’s favor. CONTINUED

Philip Bump, Washington Post

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Former Biden, Trump Pollsters Discuss the 2022 Midterms at IOP Forum

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A pair of top political pollsters said Tuesday that the fast-moving foreign policy crisis in Ukraine and the uncertain trajectory of Covid-19 in the United States have cast uncertainty over the 2022 midterm elections, which will shape the latter half of President Joe Biden’s first term.

The pollsters — John Anzalone and Tony Fabrizio, who worked for Biden and former President Donald J. Trump, respectively, during the 2020 presidential campaign — spoke at a forum held Tuesday by the Harvard Institute of Politics. CONTINUED

Katerina V. Corr, Harvard Crimson

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Big majorities reject book bans

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Americans overwhelmingly reject the idea of banning books about history or race. One reason for that: a big majority also say teaching about the history of race in America makes students understand what others went through.

Large majorities — more than eight in 10 — don’t think books should be banned from schools for discussing race and criticizing U.S. history, for depicting slavery in the past or more broadly for political ideas they disagree with. CONTINUED

Fred Backus & Anthony Salvanto, CBS News

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Red states are remaking the civil liberties landscape

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From Florida, Georgia and Tennessee through Texas, South Dakota and Montana, Republican-controlled states are approving a torrent of culturally conservative hot-button legislation at a pace unmatched in recent times, and probably ever.

States where the GOP controls both the governorship and state legislature are moving in unprecedented numbers to restrict abortion, limit access to voting, ban books, retrench transgender rights and constrain teachers’ ability to discuss race, gender and sexual orientation at public K-12 schools and increasingly at public colleges and universities. …

Rapidly spreading from state to state, these Republican-driven initiatives reflect the GOP coalition’s shifting center of gravity away from the small-government, low-tax agenda that long topped its priorities toward the roiling cultural anxieties and resentments that have become central to its messaging, especially in the Donald Trump era. CONTINUED

Ronald Brownstein, CNN

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