Want to Understand the Red-State Onslaught? Look at Florida.

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The red-state drive to roll back civil rights is entering a new phase, perhaps best symbolized by Florida’s passage this week of the “Don’t Say ‘Gay’” bill censoring how schools discuss sexual orientation. President Joe Biden’s administration is leaning more heavily into the fight, even as business leaders are retreating from the battlefield. …

Since 2021, Republican-controlled states such as Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Arizona, Texas, Missouri, Iowa, South Dakota, Idaho, and Montana have advanced a torrent of socially conservative legislation. This includes laws limiting access to abortion, restricting voting rights, banning transgender girls from participating in high-school or college sports, barring transition medical treatment for transgender minors, censoring how teachers can talk about current or historical racial and gender inequities, removing licensing requirements to publicly carry firearms, increasing penalties for public protesters, and immunizing drivers who hit and injure protesters.

Florida alone has passed almost every item on that list, and this week added the “Don’t Say ‘Gay’” bill restricting classroom discussion of sexual orientation. This week the legislature is also expected to pass DeSantis’s “Stop Woke” act, which restricts how not only schools but also private companies holding diversity training can discuss racial-equity issues. CONTINUED

Ronald Brownstein, The Atlantic

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A Potential Rarity in American Politics: A Fair Congressional Map

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For years, America’s congressional map favored Republicans over Democrats.

But that may not remain the case for long.

In a departure from a decades-long pattern in American politics, this year’s national congressional map is poised to be balanced between the two parties, with a nearly equal number of districts that are expected to lean Democratic and Republican for the first time in more than 50 years. CONTINUED

Nate Cohn, New York Times

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U.S. Views of Foreign Trade Nearly Back to Pre-Trump Levels

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Americans remain more likely to see foreign trade as an opportunity for economic growth rather than a threat to the economy, but the 61% holding the positive view of trade is nearly back to what Gallup measured in 2016. During Donald Trump’s presidency, no fewer than seven in 10 saw trade as an economic opportunity, including a high of 79% in 2020. But Americans today are still more positive toward trade than they were at any point from 1992 through 2016. CONTINUED

Jeffrey M. Jones, Gallup

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Abortion Battlefields in a Potentially Post-Roe Political World

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Key Points
• If the Supreme Court overturns Roe vs. Wade later this year, it could hypothetically energize Democratic voters in the 2022 midterms. But it’s unclear whether abortion will become a big enough motivator for Democrats to overcome the historical pattern of unfavorable midterms for the party controlling the White House, particularly if concern about the coronavirus pandemic and inflation remains high.
• Our analysis suggests that 7 states are the likeliest to experience political tensions over abortion, because they have majorities or pluralities of voters who favor abortion rights but have GOP-led legislatures who may feel driven to restrict abortion access if the Supreme Court overturns Roe.
• Each of these 7 states has a highly competitive gubernatorial or Senate race on tap for this fall, and several of them have 2 such races. CONTINUED

Louis Jacobson, Sabato’s Crystal Ball

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There Are Glimmers of Hope for Biden. Or Maybe Slivers.

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Despite the terrible reality of the war in Ukraine, rising inflation and record gas prices, a faint ray of sunshine has fallen on Joe Biden and the Democratic Party. According to strategists for both parties, the Democrats now have a 50-50 chance of retaining control of the Senate in the midterm elections, crucial for the appointment of federal judges, but nowhere near enough electoral strength to give them a shot at keeping their House majority. CONTINUED

Thomas B. Edsall, New York Times

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Americans Say High Prices Are Hitting the Things They Need to Get By

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Americans have felt inflation at the hair salon and in the frozen food aisle. They have seen it while buying pet food, pantry staples and diapers. Yes, gas is pinching them. But so is the price of bacon.

Nearly nine in 10 Americans say they have noticed prices rising around them, according to a survey conducted mid-February for The Upshot by Morning Consult. And, when asked which of the price increases have caught their attention, many mentioned necessities like gas, milk, ground beef and bread — a notably different universe of products than the narrower set of items, like used cars and raw lumber, that were soaring in price last spring. CONTINUED

Emily Badger, Aatish Bhatia & Quoctrung Bui, New York Times

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