For as long as elections have taken place someone has tried to predict what might happen. From polls to prediction models, uncertainty is always inevitable. What’s the best way to do it?
The Economist
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Against the backdrop of public concern about inflation and rising gas prices, proposals to lower what people pay out-of-pocket for drugs tops the public’s list of health care priorities for Congress, a new KFF Health Tracking Poll finds.
Most (55%) of the public say inflation is the biggest problem facing the country. Fewer cite other issues such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine (18%), climate change (6%), the COVID-19 pandemic (6%), and crime (6%).
The economy, including inflation, also ranks as the top voting issue as people begin to think about this year’s midterm elections. CONTINUED
Kaiser Family Foundation
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While many public and private employers in the United States have required workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19, some are allowing exemptions for people who say the vaccine violates their religious beliefs. But most U.S. adults do not believe that these requests for religious exemptions are sincere, according to a new Pew Research Center survey.
Two-thirds of U.S. adults say most people who claim religious objections to a COVID-19 vaccine “are just using religion as an excuse to avoid the vaccine,” while about a third (31%) say they think the objectors “sincerely believe getting a COVID-19 vaccine is against their religion.” CONTINUED
Justin Nortey, Pew Research Center
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About one-quarter of Americans, 24%, say they are satisfied with the way things are currently going in the U.S., which is statistically similar to February’s 21% and roughly in line with most readings since last August. …
Although national satisfaction is now more than double the 11% reading measured shortly after protesters violently stormed the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, it is significantly lower than the 30% to 36% readings of last March through July. CONTINUED
Megan Brenan, Gallup
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Key Points
• The U.S. Census Bureau recently reported changes in population from 2020 to 2021.
• While the headline findings mainly dealt with population declines, a number of places (particularly in the Sun Belt) are still experiencing substantial growth.
• A little more than 5 dozen counties with at least 100,000 residents grew by 3% or more from April 2020 to July 2021. These counties are spread across 20 states.
• Almost all of these counties vote Republican for president, although GOP presidential performance has eroded in many of them.
• Nearly half of these counties are in Florida and Texas, and the differing presidential trends in these fast-growing counties help illustrate the changing political trajectory of each state. CONTINUED
Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball
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In a new Marquette Law School Poll national survey, 66% of adults say that, if senators, they would support the nomination of Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court, while 34% would oppose her nomination. She is seen as “very qualified” by 46% of the public and as “somewhat qualified” by 42%, while 12% see her as “not qualified.”
Support among Democrats is nearly unanimous, with about two-thirds of independents and 29% of Republicans in favor of her confirmation. CONTINUED
Charles Franklin, Marquette Law School Poll
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