Why hasn’t Biden felt the rally ‘round the flag effect?

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In times of external threat, we expect to see the presidential approval rating spike as the country ‘rallies around the flag,” unified around a common crisis. …

While Biden might be performing relatively well on Ukraine, the larger problem is that ultimately, Americans are most concerned with the inflation and the economy. Although Ukraine has brought foreign affairs closer to top of mind than it has been in some time, it’s still a secondary, albeit related concern. …

The problems for Biden come into relief when looking at his approval rating on the economy over time. He’s been underwater since this summer. Inflation only amplifies Biden’s problem. CONTINUED

Clifford Young & Catherine Morris, Ipsos

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Congressional Approval Remains Low in March

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Congress’ job approval rating from the American people continues to simmer at the low level it descended to last fall. Twenty-one percent of Americans currently approve of the job Congress is doing, while 76% disapprove.

The latest approval rating — from a March 1-18 Gallup poll conducted before the Senate Judiciary Committee began its confirmation hearings for President Joe Biden’s Supreme Court nominee, Ketanji Brown Jackson — is on par with the 18% to 23% range seen since October. However, the current rating is down from the 12-year high of 36% recorded in March 2021. CONTINUED

Lydia Saad, Gallup

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What do Americans think of the Russia-Ukraine war and of the US response?

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The Russian invasion of Ukraine has generated much debate in America, not only about what how the U.S. should respond, but also about the extent to which the invasion represents a threat to democracy. There have been questions about the extent to which Russia’s assault has galvanized public support behind NATO, whether the war has ended the post-Cold War era as we have known it, and about the nature of the Biden administration’s response. It has also generated discussion about the degree to which the Russia-Ukraine war has eroded the deep American partisan divide in recent years. I set out to probe public perceptions of these issues in a new poll. CONTINUED

Shibley Telhami, Brookings Institution

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How Big Is The House Playing Field?

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This week, Democratic and Republican campaign operations acknowledged that the House playing field is expanding. The NRCC added another 10 House districts to its already robust list of 72 Democratic-held targets. And on the Democratic side, the House Majority PAC announced it would be reserving nearly $102 million in advertising in a whopping 51 media markets for the fall campaign.

These moves suggest that both sides see the possibility of a Red Tsunami in 2022.

But, given that districts are more polarized than ever, and that redistricting is likely to reduce the already small number of competitive districts by at least one-third, how big of a wave is possible? CONTINUED

Amy Walter, Cook Political Report with Amy Walter

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Near-even split in approval of President Biden’s handling of Ukraine

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A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds 48% of adults saying they approve of the way President Joe Biden is handling the Russian invasion of Ukraine, while 51% disapprove. Approval of Biden’s overall job performance is 44%, with 55% disapproving. In January, Biden’s overall approval was 46%, with disapproval at 55%. …

While the 2024 election is far in the future, comparison of how Republican candidates perform now helps understand their support in a developing field of possible candidates and their relative performance versus Biden. The support for Biden, which barely passes 40% in any matchup, also shows the challenges facing the president in any 2024 run, even as he leads in each matchup. CONTINUED

Charles Franklin, Marquette Law School Poll

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The Loss of Political Biodiversity

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… Biologists often talk about the need for biodiversity. In politics, it’s healthy to have parties with internal diversity, not only along lines of gender and race but geographical and ideological diversity, as well. Just as inbreeding can distort certain characteristics in nature, in politics it has an effect too, creating a certain tone-deafness or an inability to see how anyone else might see an issue differently. …

In social science, the term “group polarization” describes the phenomenon in which, as like-minded people begin to discuss a subject, their views tend to become more extreme in that direction. The increasingly monolithic ideological nature of each of our two major parties, exacerbated by cable news, talk radio, the internet, and social media, has a way of building an intensity far greater than was commonly seen 30 or 40 years ago. CONTINUED

Charlie Cook

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