Why Sarah Palin isn’t the clear favorite to win the Alaska special election

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My columns are often about which candidates are most likely to win elections. But every so often, there are elections that are so difficult to handicap that I throw my hands up in frustration.

The upcoming US House special election in Alaska is one of those. Former GOP Gov. Sarah Palin is running for the state’s at-large seat left vacant by the death of longtime Republican Rep. Don Young, and I have no idea whether she is going to win or not. …

This year, Alaska is debuting a type of jungle primary (known as a top-four primary) to select candidates who advance to the general election. In layman’s terms, all the candidates, regardless of party affiliation, will run in the same primary with the top four vote-getters advancing to the general election, which will then be decided by ranked-choice voting. CONTINUED

Harry Enten, CNN

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Extreme Weather Has Affected One in Three Americans

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One in three U.S. adults report they have been personally affected by an extreme weather event in the past two years. Most commonly, they report experiencing extreme cold, hurricanes, or snow, ice storms or blizzards. …

Residents of the South (39%) and West (35%) are significantly more likely than those living in the East (24%) and Midwest (27%) to say they have recently experienced an extreme weather event. CONTINUED

Jeffrey M. Jones, Gallup

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Seven-in-Ten Americans Now See Russia as an Enemy

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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to a dramatic shift in American public opinion: 70% of Americans now consider Russia an enemy of the United States, up from 41% in January. And on this topic, Democrats and Republicans largely agree, with 72% of Democrats and 69% of Republicans describing Russia as an enemy.

A new Pew Research Center survey, conducted March 21-27, finds that just 7% of U.S. adults have an overall favorable opinion of Russia. Only 6% express confidence in its leader, President Vladimir Putin. In contrast, 72% have confidence in Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. CONTINUED

Pew Research Center

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63% of Americans say Putin ‘cannot remain in power’

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As the war in Ukraine grinds on, a full 63% of Americans now say they agree that Russian President Vladimir Putin “cannot remain in power,” according to a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll. Just 14% disagree.

In a country as divided as the U.S., that would be a striking level of consensus regardless of the subject — let alone one as controversial and consequential as regime change in Russia. As such, it underscores the degree to which the Russian invasion has transformed Putin into a pariah across the U.S. political spectrum. CONTINUED

Andrew Romano, Yahoo News

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Economy, war and foreign conflict remain the nation’s top issues

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This week’s Ipsos’ Core Political has President Biden with a 45% approval rating as the economy and war and foreign conflict remain the nation’s top issues.

One-quarter (25%) of Americans believe the economy is the most important problem facing the nation today, followed by war and foreign conflict (10%), and the healthcare system (8%). …

President Biden’s approval rating stands at 45% this week. Approval of President Biden has increased by 7 points since last week among Democrats (82% vs 75%) but remains low among Republicans (15%) and independents (37%). CONTINUED

Ipsos

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Why aren’t Americans rallying around Biden during a war?

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The Biden administration has earned broad praise for its response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — at least before the president’s unscripted remark that Russian President Vladimir Putin should not remain in power.

Conventional wisdom has long held that U.S. public opinion rallies around the flag and the president in the wake of international crises. Notably, this jump in support hasn’t even depended on presidential performance. For example, President John F. Kennedy’s approval rating actually increased after the Bay of Pigs fiasco, leading him to quip that the worse he did, the more people loved him.

But can the U.S. response to the war in Ukraine deliver a rally in support for President Biden? Probably not. CONTINUED

Peter K. Enns & Douglas Kriner (Cornell), Monkey Cage

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