History Shows the Democrats’ Midterm Doom Isn’t Preordained

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Among the most frequently cited observations about politics — along with “it all comes down to turnout” and “a week is a lifetime” — is this factoid about midterm elections: “Since World War II, the party holding the White House has suffered an average loss of 26 House seats and four Senate seats.”

This is correct, but it’s not right — at least not as an accurate measure of what has happened in the last several dozen midterms. It’s misleading in the same way it would be to put Bill Gates in a room with nine indigents and conclude that their average worth was $13 billion.

The more accurate way to look at midterms is that there is no good way to summarize them. CONTINUED

Jeff Greenfield, Politico Magazine

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Worry About Crime in U.S. at Highest Level Since 2016

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Americans’ concern about crime and violence in the U.S. has edged up in the past year, and for the first time since 2016, a majority (53%) say they personally worry a “great deal” about crime. …

Majorities of women, Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, and those aged 30 and older worry a great deal about crime. Meanwhile, less than half of their counterparts — men, Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, and those aged 18 to 29 — express the same level of concern. CONTINUED

Megan Brenan, Gallup

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As the COVID-19 Pandemic Enters the Third Year Most Adults Say They Have Not Fully Returned to Pre-Pandemic ‘Normal’

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Conventional wisdom may be that Americans are ready to put COVID-19 in the rearview mirror and cast precautions aside, but the latest KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor report finds that most adults have not yet resumed all of their normal pre-pandemic activities and most continue to mask regularly in public places.

Six in ten adults (59%) say they have not fully returned to their normal pre-pandemic activities, including 42% who say they have returned to doing only some of these activities and 17% who say they are doing very few of the activities they did before the pandemic. A smaller share of adults say they have basically returned to normal (27%) or never changed their routine at all (14%). Majorities of unvaccinated adults (57%) and Republicans (55%), and nearly half of White adults (47%) report they never changed activity levels or have basically returned to normal. CONTINUED

Kaiser Family Foundation

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Sarah Palin’s Surprising and Possibly Historic Run for the House

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Key Points
• 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin surprised the political world when she announced a run to replace the late Don Young in Alaska’s at-large U.S. House seat.
• It’s not unusual for VP losers to subsequently win elected office, although in recent decades that has meant simply winning reelection to the job they held prior to being named to a presidential ticket.
• If Palin wins, she will set an obscure historical marker for unsuccessful postwar VP nominees. CONTINUED

Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball

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The Challenges of Being Buffalo in Today’s New York State

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Key Points
• Buffalo, and the Western New York region that surrounds it, is further from its state’s population and political centers than almost any major city in the continental U.S. This has made it challenging for political leaders in the region to keep their political clout.
• Buffalo and Western New York have seen declines in population in recent decades. On top of this, the Democratic takeover of the state Senate in 2018 robbed the region’s Republicans of a bulwark against the political priorities of the New York City metro area.
• The elevation of Kathy Hochul, who is from the Buffalo area, to the governorship in 2021 could give the region a boost. But that may have to wait until she’s secured a term of her own this November. CONTINUED

Louis Jacobson, Sabato’s Crystal Ball

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Feelings Toward Major League Baseball Ahead of Season Opener

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Baseball fans do not appear to be concerned about the impact of the 99-day Major League Baseball labor lockout on the upcoming season. Most baseball fans are at least somewhat excited about and interested in the upcoming season while a minority have some feelings of anger or frustration.

MLB baseball is currently the second most popular professional sport, behind football but ahead of NBA basketball and NHL hockey. Older Americans are more likely to be fans of baseball than younger Americans. Thirty-two percent of Americans ages 45 and older say they are currently fans compared with 22% of younger adults. CONTINUED

AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research

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