It’s not just Latinos and younger voters. Democrats are slipping among Black voters too.

· Leave a Comment

Black voters form the core of the Democratic Party base. They cast ballots for Democrats in greater proportions than pretty much any other demographic group. Without the massive backing of Black voters, the last three Democratic nominees (Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama) would not have made it to the general election.

Yet, recent polling suggests the advantage Democrats have had with Black voters may be slipping, at least a little bit. This follows the 2020 election in which Biden won Black voters by less than 80 points — the weakest margin for a Democratic presidential nominee since 1996 (if your baseline is the network exit polls). …

While Democrats are doing worse among Black voters compared with 2020, Republicans aren’t doing better. Things can change as we get closer to November, and Democrats could gain back some of the ground they have lost. CONTINUED

Harry Enten, CNN

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Inflation Concerns Fueling Low Economic Confidence in U.S.

· Leave a Comment

Americans’ confidence in the economy remains very low, and mentions of economic issues as the most important problem in the U.S. are at their highest point since 2016. Inflation, which registered as the top economic problem last month and continues to be, was previously at this level in 1984. …

Roughly four in 10 Americans name economic issues as the most important problem facing the U.S. This figure includes 17% who mention inflation or the high cost of living, 12% who name the economy in general and 6% who say fuel prices. CONTINUED

Megan Brenan, Gallup

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

How does an activist think?

· Leave a Comment

You know what activists think. They tell you. Often and loudly. That’s what makes them activists. Those active for good causes play a vital role. Without them, the pace of positive change would slow to a crawl.

But activists’ attitudes don’t always reflect the views of the majority, or even the views of the communities from which they emerge. …

The activist is, by definition, different. The 5 percent of Americans who volunteered for a campaign are different from the 95 percent who did not. The 1.5 percent who donate more than $200 to federal candidates are different from the 98.5 percent who do not. The 6 percent who attended a political rally in 2020 are different from the 94 percent who didn’t. CONTINUED

Mark Mellman (Mellman Group), The Hill

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Instead of boosting democracy, primary elections are undermining it

· Leave a Comment

… Understanding why the GOP is catering to extreme voters, even in places where trying to appeal to moderates seems more politically expedient, requires scrutiny of U.S. political history. The Founding Fathers feared political parties and demagogues, and designed institutions that would thwart them. But changes to the constitutional system, especially the widespread adoption of primary elections in the 1970s, have distorted and weakened our democracy by creating a perverse incentive structure that rewards playing to unrepresentative extremists. …

True rule by the “people” isn’t attainable under such a system that prioritizes the extremes, and the results end up feeding perpetual cycles of disappointment, populist attacks and promises of democratic renewal that prove meaningless. CONTINUED

Lawrence R. Jacobs (U. of Minnesota), Washington Post

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

‘Defund the police’ still haunts Democrats

· Leave a Comment

It’s becoming increasingly clear that after the economy, crime is a hot-button issue driving voter sentiment in the lead-up to the November elections. But despite voter concern, Democrats continue to be divided over the controversial “defund the police” mantra that has grabbed headlines for the past two years, and it’s beginning to hurt their prospects for the fall elections.

The mixed messaging of party leaders versus the call to defund by progressives, especially extreme comments by members of the Squad, has become a costly roadblock to retaining the House as voters lose confidence in Democrats’ ability to address rising violence across the country. …

“Defund the police” may no longer be the position of the Democratic Party, but when Cori Bush, AOC or any member of the Squad weighs in on any issue, the Twittersphere lights up like a cop car in hot pursuit. It seems the media can’t get enough of the Squad, and polling shows that this intraparty fight over the issue of policing and crime has not only become a major headache for Pelosi but is also taking a toll on the Democrats’ credibility. CONTINUED

David Winston (Winston Group), Roll Call

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Fox News Poll: Vance moves into top spot in Ohio GOP Senate primary

· Leave a Comment

Support for author J.D. Vance has doubled in the Ohio Republican senate primary race, catapulting him ahead of earlier frontrunners former Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel and businessman Mike Gibbons — although many voters remain undecided or uncertain about their vote. That’s according to a Fox News survey of Ohio voters participating in the May 3 GOP primary. …

In the governor’s race, incumbent Mike DeWine (43%) maintains a significant lead over former Congressman Jim Renacci (24%) and farmer and businessman Joe Blystone (19%). Still, compared to last month, DeWine’s support is down 7 points and Renacci’s up 6. CONTINUED

Dana Blanton, Fox News

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack