Can Democrats win back working-class voters? Watch Ohio.

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Few issues have vexed Democrats more than the long-running defection of White, working-class voters to the Republican Party. Ohio’s upcoming Senate race will test whether Democrats have a formula to win some of them back.

Ohio Republicans have just come off one of the most expensive Senate primaries in history, with a fractured field and a fractious, months-long debate. The winner was J.D. Vance, a Yale-educated, Silicon Valley venture capitalist who surged at the end of the campaign after securing the endorsement of former president Donald Trump. … The Democratic nominee is Rep. Tim Ryan, a 10-term House member who represents a district in northeast Ohio that has suffered through the decline of manufacturing in the United States and the shipment of jobs overseas. …

Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg said Ryan has the potential both to win support from working-class White voters who have drifted away from the Democratic Party and potentially gain support from establishment Republicans who have become disenchanted with a party dominated by Trump. But, like others, Greenberg sees Ohio’s overall landscape as challenging for a Democrat and the national trends in this election year as formidable for Ryan’s candidacy. CONTINUED

Dan Balz, Washington Post

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GOP still favored in midterms, despite possible overturning of Roe v. Wade

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The national political environment has favored Republicans since last fall. And it has only gotten worse for Democrats in the months since as inflation has skyrocketed and President Joe Biden’s approval rating has dropped.

The recent leak of a draft US Supreme Court opinion that would overturn Roe v. Wade seemed to give Democrats a winning issue to rally base and swing voters in the midterm elections. After all, most Americans support the landmark 1973 high court decision that legalized abortion nationwide.

Our new CNN poll conducted by SSRS, however, shows that such hopes are likely unfounded. CONTINUED

Harry Enten, CNN

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What we know about the public’s views on abortion

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This past week was historic for the country. A draft opinion indicating that the Supreme Court will overturn Roe v. Wade, the landmark case that made abortion a constitutional right, was leaked to the press. While the justices can change their votes before a final decision is made, both the leak and the prospect of overturning Roe are significant.

Today, we zoom out and unpack America’s complicated attitudes toward abortion, how it’s changed over time (or not), and where we, as a country, stand on this issue compared to other places. For many, this is not an issue that can be reduced to a simple yes or no–nuance matters. CONTINUED

Clifford Young & Sarah Feldman, Ipsos

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New poll reveals warning signs for GOP on abortion ahead of midterms

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Many right-wing politicians and pundits have spent the week rejoicing over Monday’s momentous report that five conservative Supreme Court justices appear poised to strike down the landmark Roe v. Wade decision that established a constitutional right to abortion almost half a century ago.

Yet a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll, one of the first to be conducted entirely after the leak of Justice Samuel Alito’s controversial draft opinion, suggests that Republicans risk overplaying their hand on abortion ahead of the 2022 midterms — and that Democrats could benefit if the hot-button issue is on the ballot. CONTINUED

Andrew Romano, Yahoo News

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CNN Poll: Most Americans want Roe v. Wade to stay, but draft abortion opinion hasn’t shaken the midterm landscape

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Americans remain broadly opposed to overturning the Roe v. Wade decision that legalized abortion nationwide, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS, following the leak of a draft Supreme Court opinion that would strike down the landmark ruling.

Sixty-six percent say Roe v. Wade should not be completely struck down, and 59% would support Congress passing legislation to establish a nationwide right to abortion, including 81% of Democrats, 65% of independents and 30% of Republicans, the survey finds. …

Republicans hold a narrow edge over Democrats on the generic ballot test, 49% to 42% among registered voters, a slight improvement for Republicans compared with the poll conducted immediately before the ruling. CONTINUED

Jennifer Agiesta & Ariel Edwards-Levy, CNN

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Wide partisan gaps in abortion attitudes, but opinions in both parties are complicated

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At a pivotal moment in the country’s decades-long debate over abortion rights, public attitudes about the legality of abortion are largely divided along partisan lines – and to a greater extent than in past decades. At the same time, a major new Pew Research Center study finds a wide range of opinions among Republicans and Democrats on several abortion-related issues. …

While Republicans and Democrats have long been on opposite sides of the issue, the 42 percentage point partisan gap today is considerably larger than it was in the recent past. CONTINUED

Hannah Hartig, Pew Research Center

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