Trumpism is terrible. It also might be popular.

· Leave a Comment

Authoritarianism, American-style fascism, Trumpism — or whatever other term you choose for the radical turn that the American right has taken — is terrible for our nation and the world. But something can be both terrible and popular. …

I think the most important explanation is that the sentiments that Trump-style politicians tap into are in some ways human nature. Defining some group of people or institutions (the media, the left, immigrants, a minority religious or ethnic group) as apart from everyone else and then blaming them for creating problems and subverting the true will of the people has been a successful political tactic in any number of times and places. There is no reason to think Americans are immune to it.

And the fact that some non-Christians and voters of color are drawn to Trumpism doesn’t disprove the idea that it’s based on identity or even bigotry. CONTINUED

Perry Bacon Jr., Washington Post

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Survey of Consumer Expectations: Inflation Expectations Mixed; Credit Access Expectations Deteriorate

· Leave a Comment

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the April 2022 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that inflation expectations fell at the one-year horizon and rose at the three-year horizon. Households remained positive about their labor market prospects with earnings growth expectations stable at its series high and job-loss expectations hovering near its series low. Household spending expectations over the next year also rose to a series high. However, perceptions of credit access relative to a year ago fell for the fourth consecutive month, and expectations of credit access one year from now also declined to a series low. CONTINUED

Federal Reserve Bank of New York

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Americans’ Financial Worries Tick Up in Past Year

· Leave a Comment

Americans are more likely today than they were a year ago to report being “very” or “moderately worried” about several aspects of their finances, reversing the improvement seen last year.

People’s concern has increased the most about paying their monthly bills (up eight percentage points to 40%) and maintaining the standard of living they enjoy (up seven points to 52%). But concern has also increased, by five points, on paying one’s rent or mortgage (35%), making minimum payments on credit cards (22%) and having enough money for retirement (63%). CONTINUED

Lydia Saad, Gallup

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

The strategy behind Biden’s new language about Republicans

· Leave a Comment

… In 2018 and 2020, Democrats ran successfully against Trump’s unpopular persona and agenda. But he’s neither president nor on the ballot now, facts that undercut Democratic attempts to use him as the foil in Virginia’s gubernatorial race last fall. That’s when the liberal Center for American Progress began exploring different approaches. …

In separate polls, Hart Research and Global Strategy Group asked Americans who don’t strongly align with Trump about the GOP’s evolution. Their research suggested that many saw extensive changes in the last five to 10 years in the Republican Party, and in key sectors of the electorate – independents, non-Whites, Whites without college degrees – substantial shares said those changes have been for the worse.

In districts and states with battleground races for the House, the Senate and governorships, pollsters found that assailing “a new extreme MAGA agenda” moved voters more than hitting the GOP’s quest to “lower taxes for the rich.” The pollsters also concluded there was broad agreement with the idea that Republicans were “willing to do anything for power.”

Those findings anchor the new argument Biden and fellow Democrats have begun making. It seeks to cast the Republican quest for power as a threat not just to voters’ economic interests but also to American values, personal rights and democracy itself. CONTINUED

John Harwood, CNN

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Most who support Roe see an overturn as a danger to women, other rights

· Leave a Comment

The nearly two-thirds of Americans who want Roe v. Wade kept in place say they feel angry and discouraged about the prospect that it may be overturned, describing that as “a danger to women” and as a threat to rights more generally. Most Americans, and particularly younger women, think it would also lead to restrictions on birth control and family planning choices. Going forward, most would like to see a federal law passed that protects abortion and in their own states, two-thirds want it to be legal, at least in most cases.

For the one-third who do want Roe overturned, they’d describe it as “a protection for the unborn” and call it a victory for the anti-abortion rights movement. Most of them would like to see a national ban on abortions now. CONTINUED

Jennifer De Pinto, Fred Backus & Anthony Salvanto, CBS News

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Abortion could upend midterms, but only if young people vote

· Leave a Comment

Last week’s leaked draft opinion that would overturn the Supreme Court’s Roe v. Wade ruling has potential impacts that reach beyond the courts and abortion laws. It was a bomb set off in the thick of 2022’s midterm campaign. And one doesn’t have to look hard to see how it could affect November’s vote, particularly in one important age demographic for Democrats: young voters.

Since the news broke, there has steady stream of reporting on polling data showing that most Americans favor keeping abortion legal. That’s true and the numbers have been stable for some time.

Recent data from the Pew Research Center show that 61 percent of Americans want to keep abortion legal with only some exceptions, and only 8 percent of Americans want abortion to be completely illegal. But the strength of those opinions varies dramatically by age group. CONTINUED

Dante Chinni, NBC News

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack