The Roe effect

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… As recently as last year, just 35 percent thought it was likely Roe could be overturned. Pre-Trump, the numbers were even lower. That calculus has already been dramatically altered. The threat is here and it’s real, and the fact will be evident before the election. The pro-Roe majority will be both unwavering and motivated.

The Supreme Court will also face consequences. Recent Republican appointees knowingly and purposely misled the Senate about their views on Roe. Had they not done so, they may not have been seated on the Court. …

If — and it still is a big if — the U.S. slides further away from democracy, Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett will go down in history as handmaidens of America’s decline. CONTINUED

Mark Mellman (Mellman Group), The Hill

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U.S. COVID Cases Are Rising Again, but Worries Are Not

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The steady increase in COVID-19 cases this past month is not disconcerting to Americans, as they are less worried now about the coronavirus than they were at the start of the year, and fewer are social distancing.

Fewer than one in three U.S. adults (31%) say they are “very” or “somewhat worried” about getting COVID-19, statistically similar to the 34% recorded in mid-February when cases were steeply declining after the omicron spike. Americans’ current worry level is the lowest Gallup has recorded since July 2021. CONTINUED

Justin McCarthy, Gallup

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CBS News poll: Does Roe v. Wade change motivation to vote and be politically active?

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Although the potential overturning of Roe v. Wade has elicited a great deal of sentiment among Americans, almost two-thirds report that it hasn’t made them feel any more or less motivated to vote — at least not at the moment.

But of those who do report feeling a change in motivation right now, Democrats are more than twice as likely as Republicans to report it’s made them feel more likely to vote. Perhaps that’s because Democrats also report feeling that there is more at risk, including their expressed view that overturning Roe will be a danger to women and threaten other rights as well. CONTINUED

Jennifer De Pinto, CBS News

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Personality Politics, with Jonathan Martin & Alex Burns

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We’ve reached maximum Hacks capacity this week with not one but two guest Hacks, Jonathan Martin and Alex Burns of The New York Times. They join Axe and Murphy to discuss the MAGA-fication of Republican primary races, the politics of Roe v. Wade, and Martin and Burns’ new book, This Will Not Pass: Trump, Biden, and the Battle for America’s Future.

Hacks on Tap

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With six months left, ominous outlook remains for Democrats

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Three-quarters of the way through the midterm election cycle, it doesn’t look like anything will change the ominous forecast for Democrats. And Republicans remain well-positioned to take back Congress this fall.

There’s a difference between historic events and game-changing events (events that change the trajectory of an election cycle). A Supreme Court decision effectively overturning Roe v. Wade would certainly be another historic event. But pause is warranted before assuming such a decision will fundamentally alter the current outlook for the midterms. …

Despite some Democratic optimism earlier in the cycle that time would heal some political wounds, specifically those surrounding COVID-19 and the economy, that just hasn’t been the case. Persistent inflation, high gas prices, supply chain problems, crime, and other issues have built a political ceiling that Biden is having trouble cracking. CONTINUED

Nathan L. Gonzales, Roll Call

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The worst pandemic in a century has outlasted our attention span

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… For weeks, Congress has been treating pandemic funding with all the urgency of an appropriations bill for the National Endowment for the Humanities. Maybe it will be combined with aid for Ukraine. Maybe it will stand alone. Maybe it will forever dance the limbo. The dominant mood remains: Who cares? COVID-19 is boring.

It is an impressive achievement for 2022 America. The worst pandemic in a century has outlasted our attention span. By this standard, we would have stopped following World War II in early 1944 because all those battle reports from tiny islands in the Pacific were getting so tiresome. …

Maybe it was inevitable that the pandemic would become just another battleground in our polarized politics. But the undeniable truth is that the coronavirus minimizers (“It’s just like a mild case of the flu”) and the anti-vaxxers have won. CONTINUED

Walter Shapiro, Roll Call

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