Trump could be facing an endorsement Waterloo this week

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This past week, former President Donald Trump suffered his first high-profile endorsement defeat of 2022. Nebraska businessman Charles Herbster, who faced allegations of sexual misconduct by multiple women, lost the GOP nomination for governor.

Herbster’s downfall may be only a temporary blemish on Trump’s record. After all, the former President’s endorsed candidates are 4 for 5 this month in primary races in which there were either no or two incumbents running.

But this week may turn that blemish into a downright blotch, as Trump’s magic endorsement hand faces its toughest challenges so far. CONTINUED

Harry Enten, CNN

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Pollsters prepare for major changes after presidential election misses

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The polling industry is on the precipice of its biggest change in decades, as pollsters try to battle back from consecutive presidential election failures.

Pollsters are increasingly embracing new methods in the run-up to the 2022 midterms after notable misses in recent races. Front of mind is the looming 2024 election cycle, when former President Donald Trump — whose support among the electorate has bedeviled pollsters trying to measure it for the past seven years, including missing low on Trump’s vote before his 2016 win and underestimating the closeness of his 2020 loss — could be on the ballot for the third consecutive presidential election. …

At the American Association for Public Opinion Research’s annual conference here last week, the papers presented and the sideline conversations presaged the biggest change in election polling since Americans began cutting the cord and ditching landlines for cell phones. CONTINUED

Steven Shepard, Politico

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Support for abortion rights hits new high as midterm outlook stays mostly unchanged

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Support for abortion rights has reached a record high, and nearly two-thirds of Americans oppose the U.S. Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade, according to a new national NBC News poll conducted after the leak of a draft opinion that would strike down the constitutional right to abortion.

What’s more, the survey finds abortion climbing up the list of issues that Americans believe are the most important, and that Democratic interest in the upcoming midterms has increased since earlier this year. CONTINUED

Mark Murray, NBC News

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The Rich Are Not Who We Think They Are. And Happiness Is Not What We Think It Is, Either.

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… My data-driven advice for getting rich for someone with good analytical skills and deep experience in a field is to start a market research business. Use your specialized knowledge in the field to write up reports; sell them widely and charge a fortune to your contacts in the field. I have estimated that more than 10 percent of owners of market research businesses are in the top 0.1 percent. CONTINUED

Seth Stephens-Davidowitz, New York Times

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Personal Religiosity and Attitudes Toward Abortion

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Americans’ attitudes about abortion, brought to the forefront of public attention by the recently leaked Supreme Court draft opinion overturning Roe V. Wade, significantly correlate with their personal characteristics and identities. One of the most important of these variables is religion. This reflects the fact that many opponents of abortion make their arguments based on religious grounds, and many religious organizations have made their positions on abortion a significant part of their tenets, beliefs and principles. CONTINUED

Frank Newport, Gallup

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Inflation nation

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics released another grim report on inflation this week. While the Consumer Price Index, the mechanism through which the BLS measures inflation, is down slightly it is still higher than it has been in decades. For this past month, it is nearly double what it was last year, when many still thought this was all transitory.

Many experts expect inflation to be with us into the near-term. Given that, this week we take a look at inflation; how people are dealing with the rising costs of goods, who they believe is driving this, what their expectations for the future are, and, as always, the political implications of it all. CONTINUED

Clifford Young & Sarah Feldman, Ipsos

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