Our Precarious Democracy: Extreme Polarization and Alienation in Our Politics

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As Independence Day approaches, more than one in four Americans are so alienated from their government that they believe it may “soon be necessary to take up arms” against it, according to a new poll released Thursday by the University of Chicago’s Institute of Politics (IOP).

That startling finding, which comes in the midst of congressional hearings into the January 6th insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, was just one of several reflections of the dangerous level of estrangement many Americans feel from each other and our democratic institutions.

The survey of 1,000 registered voters, conducted last month by Republican pollster Neil Newhouse and Democratic pollster Joel Benenson with input from students at the IOP, was designed to probe polarization and its relationship to the news sources upon which Americans rely in a fractionated media environment. CONTINUED — pdf

Institute of Politics, University of Chicago

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Public Disagrees with SCOTUS on Guns

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A majority of Americans say individual states should be able to determine who can carry concealed weapons – an opinion that is at odds with a recent ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court. The Monmouth University Poll finds that public support for certain gun safety measures – such as comprehensive background checks, red flag laws and a national gun registry – remains high. …

Just 30% of Americans see the Second Amendment as offering an absolute right to bear arms. More than half (54%) say the right is important but should have restrictions, while 15% say it would be better for the country to do away with the right to bear arms entirely. Among current gun owners, 49% view the Second Amendment as an absolute right while 47% say the right to bear arms should have some restrictions. CONTINUED

Monmouth University Polling Institute

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The most likely impact of the Jan. 6 hearings on Trump

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It’s the question on most everyone’s tongue amid the Jan. 6 committee hearings — and especially after Cassidy Hutchinson’s explosive testimony: Will it ultimately matter?

It’s a fair question. Donald Trump has skated past any number of controversies, scandals and pretty stark evidence stemming from the Russia investigations, and his poll numbers have been remarkably static. …

Of course, everyone has a breaking point. But with Trump and GOP-leaning voters, it might not even need to be about that. Indeed, there’s a credible case to be made that the most likely effect of the Jan. 6 hearings isn’t criminal charges against Trump or his party breaking from him fully, but a more gradual realization that it might be best to move in a different direction in 2024 — if for no other reason than Trump’s baggage. CONTINUED

Aaron Blake, Washington Post

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About half say Trump should be charged for 1/6

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About half of Americans believe former President Donald Trump should be charged with a crime for his role in the U.S. Capitol attack on Jan. 6, 2021, a new poll shows. The survey from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finds that 48% of U.S. adults say the former president should be charged with a crime for his role, while 31% say he should not be charged. …

Views on Trump’s criminal liability break down predictably along party lines, with 86% of Democrats but only 10% of Republicans saying Trump should be charged with a crime. CONTINUED

Farnoush Amiri & Nuha Dolby, Associated Press

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The Vanishing Moderate Democrat

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… Over the last decade, the Democratic Party has moved significantly to the left on almost every salient political issue. Some of these shifts in a more ambitiously progressive direction, especially as they pertain to economic issues, have largely tracked with public opinion: While socialism might not poll well with voters, Democratic proposals to raise taxes on corporations and the wealthy, increase the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour and lower the age of Medicare eligibility do.

But on social, cultural and religious issues, particularly those related to criminal justice, race, abortion and gender identity, the Democrats have taken up ideological stances that many of the college-educated voters who now make up a sizable portion of the party’s base cheer but the rest of the electorate does not. …

All of which has occasioned not just the normal midterm agita but something closer to an existential crisis among moderate Democrats. While some of them remain reluctant to publicly concede the reality that the Democratic Party has indeed shifted left — either out of fear of angering their fellow Democrats or validating Republican attacks — they will readily acknowledge that voters perceive the party as having drifted out of the mainstream. And they are convinced that this is threatening their political survival. CONTINUED

Jason Zengerle, New York Times Magazine

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These 4 questions will haunt Democrats this summer

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With the November elections now just over four months away, it feels like this has become a critical, make-or-break moment for the Biden administration as it continues to be plagued with multiple crises, bad economic news and one adverse court ruling after another. Can the Biden team regroup and keep his presidency and party from going off a political cliff this fall, or are they destined to suffer a major defeat at the hands of a frustrated electorate?

That’s the big question swirling around Washington these days, but what happens in November will be determined by the answers to more than whether this becomes Joe Biden’s personal “summer of recovery.” Here are some of the other questions that will impact the outcome of the congressional midterms. CONTINUED

David Winston (Winston Group), Roll Call

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