Consumer Confidence Declined Moderately in July

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The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased in July, following a larger decline in June. The Index now stands at 95.7 (1985=100), down 2.7 points from 98.4 in June. …

“Consumer confidence fell for a third consecutive month in July,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The decrease was driven primarily by a decline in the Present Situation Index—a sign growth has slowed at the start of Q3. The Expectations Index held relatively steady, but remained well below a reading of 80, suggesting recession risks persist. Concerns about inflation—rising gas and food prices, in particular—continued to weigh on consumers.” CONTINUED

Conference Board

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Battling To A Democratic Win In 2022

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Democrats face the most daunting internal problems and headwinds getting to a winning margin in the 2022 midterms, yet this angry and Republican-leaning electorate gives them a 2-point margin in the vote.

Democracy Corps conducted a national web survey among 2,500 registered voters from July 8-16, 2022. The data includes a base sample of 1,000 registered voters, with large over samples of 500 Black voters, 500 Hispanic voters, and 500 AAPI voters. The over sample data are statistically weighted to ensure the sample’s regional, age, and gender composition reflects that of the estimated registered voters in the United States. …

To succeed in the 2022 election, Democrats have to contest the most critical issue – the cost of living. This survey shows Democrats can contest and win on the cost of living, even though Democrats trail by 14 points on the issue. CONTINUED

Democracy Corps

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Red states are building a nation within a nation

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It was a revealing sign of the times when the Supreme Court last week, in response to a lawsuit from the Republican state attorneys general in Texas and Louisiana, blocked President Joe Biden’s administration from changing a key element of federal immigration policy.

The case was just the latest example of how red states, supported by Republican-appointed judges, are engaging in a multi-front offensive to seize control of national policy even while Democrats hold the White House and nominally control both the House and Senate. The red states are moving social policy sharply to the right within their borders on issues from abortion to LGBTQ rights and classroom censorship, while simultaneously working to hobble the ability of either the federal government or their own largest metro areas to set a different course.

To a degree unimaginable even a decade ago, this broad offensive increasingly looks like an effort to define a nation within a nation — one operating with a set of rules and policies that diverge from the rest of America more than in almost any previous era. CONTINUED

Ronald Brownstein, CNN

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Trump is not the only threat to democracy

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The investigations into the January 6, 2021 Capitol Hill insurrection reveal how close America came to overturning its democratic system. The peaceful transfer of power that has long characterized U.S. history was threatened last year and it took considerable effort on the part of many individuals to survive the challenges of Donald Trump and his allies. Disturbing testimony over the last few weeks revealed coordinated efforts to seat Electoral College electors who did not represent the winning side of the popular vote and lawyers who encouraged then-sitting Vice President Mike Pence to nullify two centuries of constitutional rule through the view that he alone could decide who won the campaign.

Yet it is a mistake to focus solely on Donald Trump’s role in these efforts. In my Brookings Institution Press book, Power Politics: Trump and the Assault on American Democracy, I argue there are several systemic threats to the future of democracy, such as copycat candidates, legal coups, a toxic information ecosystem, the decline of authoritative institutions, and the widespread prevalence of counter-majoritarianism in our political system. Trump represents an existential threat to our current system, but he is not the only challenge facing the country. CONTINUED

Darrell M. West, Brookings Institution

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Republicans’ Environmental Worry Varies by Age

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Even before the U.S. Supreme Court’s June ruling that limits the Environmental Protection Agency’s ability to regulate greenhouse gas emissions, a near-record-high 44% of Americans said they worried “a great deal” about the quality of the environment. As with many issues, though, partisans’ views differ sharply on this measure. Yet, an in-depth analysis of Gallup data finds that while less than one-quarter of Republicans overall express this high level of worry, those aged 18-34 are significantly more worried than their older counterparts. CONTINUED

Megan Brenan, Gallup

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Congress Should Act to Protect Same-Sex Marriage Nationwide, Most Voters Say

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A solid majority of voters are on board with Democratic-led efforts to codify gay and lesbian couples’ right to get married in any U.S. state, according to a new Morning Consult/Politico survey.

In the July 22-24 survey, 58% of voters support congressional passage of a federal law to protect the right to same-sex marriage, including 75% of Democrats and 62% of independents. Three in 10 voters oppose the move, driven by 51% of Republicans.

Even more voters support federal protections for interracial marriage (71%) and access to birth control (75%).

Most voters (57%) would also like to see Congress act to protect access to abortion, with Democrats are far more likely to support such efforts (78%) than Republicans are to oppose them (59%). CONTINUED

Eli Yokley, Morning Consult

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