Key Points
• We are making 10 House rating changes, 9 of which benefit Republicans.
• Our overall best guess at the net change in the House — a GOP gain somewhere in the 20s — remains unchanged.
• We don’t see a huge impact, so far, from the Supreme Court’s landmark abortion opinion. CONTINUED
Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball
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With California facing a severe drought and wildfire season, public awareness has risen of the impact of climate change as well as state policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. A sharp increase in petroleum prices has led to discussions about expanding oil production and renewable energy sources. These are among the key findings of a statewide survey on environmental issues conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California from July 8 to 15, 2022:
Californians are most likely to name water supply and drought, followed by wildfires and climate change, as the most important environmental issue facing the state today …
Overwhelming majorities favor developing renewable energy sources over expanding oil, coal, and natural gas production. Forty-nine percent have seriously considered getting an electric vehicle. Forty-nine percent approve of President Biden’s handling of environmental issues. CONTINUED
Mark Baldassare, Dean Bonner, Rachel Lawler & Deja Thomas, Public Policy Institute of California
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Politics and policy move in cycles. The pendulum swings from growing government to conservative retrenchment, less regulation to stronger oversight, Democratic leadership to Republican. Momentum is shifting again. There are four key backlashes to recent trends that businesses and investors must understand and navigate to succeed in 2023-24. CONTINUED – pdf
Bruce Mehlman, Mehlman Castagnetti Rosen & Thomas
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A new CNN poll finds 75% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters want the party to nominate someone other than President Joe Biden in the 2024 election, a sharp increase from earlier this year.
The poll comes as Biden’s approval ratings remain low and most Americans are discontented with the state of the country and the economy. Inflation remains high and a new report released Tuesday showed consumer confidence slipped for the third straight month. …
The poll also showed a majority of Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters say they do not want former President Donald Trump to be their party’s nominee in the 2024 presidential election. Fifty-five percent say they want someone else other than Trump to be the nominee, which is up from 49% in a January/February poll. CONTINUED
Kate Sullivan, CNN
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The explosive congressional hearings into the Jan. 6 assault on the Capitol have sparked headlines, but an exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll finds that they aren’t changing many minds.
Among Republicans, just 7% say the dramatic presentations by the special House committee have made them view the attack as more serious than they had thought; only 6% say they now believe then-President Donald Trump was more involved than they had thought.
While the hearings have revealed sometimes-shocking testimony about the events surrounding that day, the survey finds little evidence for the hopes of some Democrats that they might transform public opinion or affect the midterm elections. CONTINUED
Susan Page & Chelsey Cox, USA Today
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After the eight public hearings held by the House Select Committee investigating the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol, the American public’s views on the state of democracy and the threat posed to it by that event have changed little, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS.
At the same time, a public consensus has emerged that former President Donald Trump acted at least unethically in trying to hold on to his office after the 2020 election (79% feel he acted either unethically or illegally, including 45% who believe his actions were illegal), that he encouraged political violence in his public statements ahead of January 6 (61%) and that he could have done more to stop the attack once it had begun (77%). CONTINUED
Jennifer Agiesta, CNN
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