Improvement or Illusion?

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Over the last couple of weeks, there’s been a shift in opinion among many political professionals about Democrats’ chances in the midterm campaign. …

Yet, there’s nothing new about a late summer ‘reassessment’ of midterm assumptions. In fact, like clockwork, the out-party right about now starts to fret that their advantage is slipping, while the in-party sees green shoots springing from a barren landscape. Or, as Washington Examiner’s David Drucker wrote on Twitter recently: “Midterm cycles since ’06 have certain rhythm: 1) Maybe POTUS’ party’ll avoid losses. 2) Things look good for out party. 3) Things look REALLY good for out party. 4) Hold on, maybe POTUS’ party won’t lose as many seats as thought. 5) Could POTUS’ party avoid wipeout? 6) WIPEOUT.” CONTINUED

Amy Walter, Cook Political Report with Amy Walter

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The Rise of the Conservative Latina

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For decades, Republicans have sought to make gains with a critical voting bloc: Latinos. Last month, when Mayra Flores was elected to Congress from Texas, she finally showed them a way to gain that support. Today, we explore what her campaign tells us about the future of the Latino vote.

The Daily, New York Times

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Consumers adjust to inflation as labor market expectations worsen

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Consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged from June, when it had reached an all-time low for the survey, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. …

Overall, the index rose by 1.5 index points in July, well within the margin of error and remaining almost 37% below a year ago. The 2nd-quarter decline in overall GDP came as little surprise to consumers, who had slowed down their spending. …

The Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 51.5 in the July 2022 survey, up from 50 in June and below last July’s 81.2. CONTINUED

University of Michigan

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Biden Job Approval Dips to New Low

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President Joe Biden’s job approval rating has fallen below 40% for the first time and now sits at a personal low of 38%. Between September and June, the president’s rating had ranged narrowly between 40% and 43%. Before that, Biden mostly received majority approval ratings. …

Biden’s sixth quarter in office, spanning April 20 through July 19, recently ended. During this time, an average of 40% of Americans approved of the job he was doing as president. No president elected to his first term has had a lower sixth-quarter average than Biden, although Jimmy Carter’s and Donald Trump’s ratings were only slightly better, at 42%. CONTINUED

Jeffrey M. Jones, Gallup

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The January 6 Hearings Are Changing Republicans’ Minds

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For Republican voters, the January 6 hearings haven’t so much broken through as seeped in, slowly changing opinions about whether former President Donald Trump should be the GOP nominee in 2024.

I conducted dozens of focus groups of Trump 2020 voters in the 17 months between the storming of the Capitol on January 6 and when the hearings began in June. One measure was consistent: At least half of the respondents in each group wanted Trump to run again in 2024. The prevailing belief was that the 2020 election was stolen—or at least unfair in some way—and Trump should get another shot.

But since June, I’ve observed a shift. I’ve conducted nine focus groups during this period, and found that only 14 percent of Trump 2020 voters wanted him to run in 2024, with a few others on the fence. In four of the groups, zero people wanted Trump to run again. Their reasoning is clear: They’re now uncertain that Trump can win again. CONTINUED

Sarah Longwell, The Atlantic

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Could a third-party candidate win the White House in 2024?

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A viable third party candidate: Could we have one in the 2024 presidential election? Could they win? According to today’s Suffolk University/USA TODAY national poll of registered voters, Americans are practically screaming for a third-party presidential candidate – or at least anyone who isn’t a Democrat or Republican. We asked voters, “Do the two major parties – Democrat & Republican – do a good job of representing Americans’ political views?” A majority (60%) answered that either a third party or many parties are necessary, with only 1-in-4 registered voters (25%) answering that 2 parties are good enough and the remainder undecided. CONTINUED

David Paleologos (Suffolk U.), USA Today

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