Inflation Expectations Decline Across All Horizons

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The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the July 2022 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows substantial declines in short-, medium- and longer-term inflation expectations. Expectations about year-ahead price increases for gas and food fell sharply. Home price growth expectations and year-ahead spending growth expectations continued to pull back from recent series highs. Households’ income growth expectations improved. CONTINUED

Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Inflation expectations

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Black, Native American and Latino families face serious problems from inflation

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Fears of eviction. Trouble affording groceries. Unmet medical needs.

A national poll — from NPR, the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health — finds those are all too common experiences for high proportions of Black, Latino and Native American adults as the U.S. weathers a grueling stretch of high prices and economic uncertainty.

In fact, more than half of Black and Latino households report the recent price increases driven by inflation have caused them “serious financial problems.” It’s even higher among Native Americans, with that number rising to more than two-thirds of those surveyed. CONTINUED

Will Stone, NPR News

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Immigration Views Remain Mixed and Highly Partisan

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The U.S. remains highly fractured over immigration policy, with 27% of Americans saying immigration should be increased, 31% preferring that it be kept at the current level and 38% wanting it decreased.

While today’s attitudes are generally in line with the close division of views seen over the past several years, they mark a return to more Americans wanting immigration decreased rather than increased. That has been the norm throughout Gallup’s history of polling on this since 1965. CONTINUED

Lydia Saad, Gallup

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Donald Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong

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To be or not to be, that is the question when it comes to former President Donald Trump’s potential 2024 presidential campaign. The man who used to occupy the Oval Office has been holding rallies and endorsing candidates across the country this primary season. And this past week provided crucial tests of his influence, from Michigan down to Kansas, across to Arizona and up to Washington state. …

Political analysts have long wondered when, or if, Trump’s grip on the Republican electorate is going to cease. There have been plenty of articles written about how his influence may very well be on the decline. This past week, however, offered proof that Trump remains a power center within the party. It fits with other data suggesting that while the former President may not be as powerful as he once was, he remains a force to be reckoned with in the GOP. CONTINUED

Harry Enten, CNN

ABC News/Ipsos poll: Three months before midterms, Republicans hold advantage on handling the economy, crime

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The Republican Party is more trusted to handle key issues like the economy, inflation, and crime, according to the latest ABC News/Ipsos poll. This pattern holds true among those who indicate they are very enthusiastic about voting in the midterms this November. However, among roughly a third of all Americans, and nearly half of self-ascribed independents, neither party is trusted to do a good job, indicating both Democrats and Republicans have work to do to make inroads with certain groups of the public before November. At the same time, President Joe Biden’s job approval rating holds steady across many issues. Aside from his response to coronavirus, most Americans disapprove of the job Biden is doing on several key issues. CONTINUED

Mallory Newall, Ipsos

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Kansas abortion vote offers clues for the midterms

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The biggest political story this week emerged from Kansas, where citizens voted down a proposal that would have removed abortion rights protections from their state constitution. But the biggest political story going forward may be the meaning that Kansas vote has in other states in the coming months and years.

Tuesday’s results in the state were notable for a few reasons. First, there was a massive turnout on the issue. More people voted on the ballot measure than in the Democratic and Republican gubernatorial races combined. Second, was the size of the defeat for the proposal — voters rejected it by nearly 18 percentage points. CONTINUED

Dante Chinni, NBC News

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