4 in 10 would back a Trump presidential bid in 2024

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The House January 6th Committee has tried to make the case that former President Donald Trump bears direct responsibility for what happened at the U.S. Capitol last year. The latest Monmouth University Poll, though, suggests it hasn’t moved the needle with the American public. In general, public opinion stands pretty much the same as it was before recent headline-grabbing testimony of former presidential aides during the last three public hearings. This is true of both Trump’s culpability in the attack on the Capitol and claims of election fraud. In fact, Trump’s favorability rating is nearly identical to where it stood immediately after the 2020 election, and 4 in 10 Americans would lean toward backing a comeback bid in 2024. CONTINUED

Monmouth University Polling Institute

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Despite Awareness of Covid-19 Risks, Many Americans Say They’re Back to ‘Normal’

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Many Americans know of the potential risks to themselves and their families from infection with Covid-19, but growing numbers say they have returned to living their “normal” pre-pandemic lives, according to July 2022 national survey data from the Annenberg Public Policy Center (APPC).

Increasing numbers say they personally know someone who has died from Covid-19 and personally know someone who has suffered the lingering effects such as neurological problems and fatigue that are commonly known as “long Covid,” according to the APPC survey, which was conducted July 12-18, 2022.

Despite awareness of the continuing risks of Covid-19, worries about its health effects have declined, the percentage of Americans who often or always wear masks indoors with people from outside their household has plummeted, and the number saying they have returned to living their “normal, pre-Covid-19 life” has more than doubled over the past six months. CONTINUED

Annenberg Public Policy Center

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As Partisan Hostility Grows, Signs of Frustration With the Two-Party System

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Partisan polarization has long been a fact of political life in the United States. But increasingly, Republicans and Democrats view not just the opposing party but also the people in that party in a negative light. Growing shares in each party now describe those in the other party as more closed-minded, dishonest, immoral and unintelligent than other Americans. …

The survey finds that while negative partisanship remains extensive – and in many cases is increasing – there also are signs of frustration with the two-party system and the parties themselves. This frustration is more evident among partisan leaners – who tend to be younger and less politically engaged than partisans – than among those who identify as Republicans or Democrats. CONTINUED

Pew Research Center

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Why the Soothsayers Are So Puzzled by This Year’s Midterms

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Doug Sosnik is the kind of political analyst who likes to figure out the results of the next election well in advance — it’s just how he’s wired. But even Sosnik, a former adviser to President Bill Clinton who now tries to forecast elections as a hobby, is stumped about the 2022 midterms.

“I can’t figure this one out,” Sosnik said on Monday, a day after Democrats passed Build Back Better — whoops, pardon me, the Inflation Reduction Act, a woolly mammoth-size package that aims to shrink both the deficit and the risk of catastrophic climate change. …

According to the usual logic Sosnik uses to make predictions, Democrats should expect a “blood bath” in the fall. But he’s not so sure anymore and is questioning everything he knows about the deeper patterns of U.S. elections. CONTINUED

Blake Hounshell, New York Times

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Biden Approval Rating Hits New Low, Despite Democrats’ Winning Streak

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President Joe Biden’s approval rating has fallen to the lowest point of his presidency, despite a few weeks of relative good news for Democrats. …

Biden’s approval rating fell 2.1 points to 42.4 over the past month, undercutting his prior low of 43 in June. The IBD/TIPP presidential job approval measure indicates that 42.4% of adults who stated an opinion approve of Biden’s job performance and 57.6% disapprove. The approval rating excludes those who were unsure or declined to state an opinion,

Including the full survey group, 39% of American adults approve how Biden is handling the presidency, and 53% disapprove. CONTINUED

Jed Graham, Investor’s Business Daily

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What the national analysis of Kansas left out

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If you followed the coverage of the Aug. 2 Kansas abortion vote, you probably were surprised by the result, which ended up protecting abortion rights in what was often referred to as a “ruby red” state.

But you might not have been so stunned if you had watched Kansas politics over the past three or four decades. …

Republicans have an advantage in the state, especially when it comes to federal races. But since a civil war erupted in the Kansas GOP in the 1990s pitting conservative evangelicals against moderate Republicans, Democrats have looked for opportunities to swipe a seat here or there — or, in this case, win a key ballot measure about abortion rights — when the GOP goes too far. CONTINUED

Stuart Rothenberg, Roll Call

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