Betting on a GOP House wave? Look at voters’ education first.

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The last few weeks have brought Democrats some good news about the 2022 midterms. There have been better poll numbers and surprising election results in some races, such as this week’s close race in a Minnesota House district that went heavily for Donald Trump in 2020. Democrats still face an uphill battle in November and oddsmakers say they are likely to lose control of the House of Representatives, but the numbers raise questions about whether 2022 might defy the early expectations of a Republican wave.

On top of a long list of 2022 issues (from the Dobbs decision … to some improving economic news), there are two larger structural factors to consider. First, is the changing nature of the GOP. And second is the impact of Donald Trump not being on the ballot.

In the last few years, the composition of the nation’s two major political parties has changed, particularly around educational attainment. The GOP is increasingly made up of voters without a college degree, while the reverse is true for the Democrats. The data show a pretty clear pattern. CONTINUED

Dante Chinni, NBC News

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Summer Breeze

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If last summer’s theme song for Democrats was “Cruel Summer,” this summer should be “Summer Breeze.” By the end of the summer of 2021, the resurgence of COVID (and subsequent scramble for testing and inconsistent advice from government agencies), the chaotic withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, and rising inflation, not only crushed President Biden’s political standing but created headwinds for down-ballot Democrats that looked all but impossible to overcome.

This summer, however, the wind has been at Democrats’ back. CONTINUED

Amy Walter, Cook Political Report with Amy Walter

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Fox News Poll: More concern over coronavirus than monkeypox

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As the U.S. approaches year four of battling the novel coronavirus and starts to grapple with another health crisis, monkeypox, the latest Fox News survey finds voters are more concerned about the virus that has plagued the country since 2020 than the one that has more recently taken hold.

Moreover, with the new school year just around the corner, majorities favor requiring coronavirus vaccines for teachers and students and allowing schools to require masks.

The survey, released Friday, finds 55% of voters are extremely or very concerned about the coronavirus pandemic. CONTINUED

Victoria Balara, Fox News

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Fox News Poll: Record 70% say life will be worse for next generation

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Against the backdrop of mass shootings, foreign policy showdowns, inflation woes and a pandemic, the latest Fox News survey finds a record-high number of registered voters think life for the next generation of Americans will be worse than it is today.

A majority, 70%, says life will be worse for the next generation than it is today — up 29 percentage points from July 2020. …

Voters say some of the gravest threats to the stability of the U.S. are at home as well as abroad.

Number one? Gun violence. Sixty-four percent say it is a “major” threat to the stability of the country. CONTINUED

Victoria Balara, Fox News

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Fox News Poll: 75% dissatisfied with nation’s direction

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Large majorities rate the economy negatively, fail to see signs of a recovery, and are generally unhappy with the way things are going in the country. And the unhappiness is now bipartisan, as over half of Democrats join almost all Republicans and independents in being dissatisfied.

That’s according to a Fox News survey released Thursday.

Overall, 75% are dissatisfied with how things are going in the country today, up from 67% in May of this year and 53% in April 2021, around the 100-day point of Joe Biden’s presidency. CONTINUED

Dana Blanton, Fox News

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Fox News Poll: Record 55% disapprove of SCOTUS

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On the heels of the high court overturning the landmark abortion case Roe v. Wade in late June, a new Fox News survey finds a record number of registered voters disapproving of the U.S. Supreme Court.

The poll, released Thursday, finds 55% of voters discontent with the court’s job performance. That’s a 7-point jump from June, shortly before the ruling, and up 24 points from two years ago in July 2020. This is the first time over half have disapproved since Fox began asking the question in 2006 — at that time, 50% approved, 30% disapproved. …

Sixty percent disapprove of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe, relatively unchanged since July. CONTINUED

Victoria Balara, Fox News

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