Why Abortion Has Become a Centerpiece of Democratic TV Ads in 2022

… All across America, Democrats are using abortion as a powerful cudgel in their 2022 television campaigns, paying for an onslaught of ads in House, Senate and governor’s races that show how swiftly abortion politics have shifted since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in late June.

With national protections for abortion rights suddenly gone and bans going into effect in many states, senior White House officials and top Democratic strategists believe the issue has radically reshaped the 2022 landscape in their favor. They say it has not only reawakened the party’s progressive base, but also provided a wedge issue that could wrest away independent voters and even some Republican women who believe abortion opponents have overreached. …

“Rarely has an issue been handed on a silver platter to Democrats that is so clear-cut,” said Anna Greenberg, a Democratic pollster working with multiple 2022 campaigns. “It took an election that was going to be mostly about inflation and immigration and made it also about abortion.” CONTINUED

Shane Goldmacher & Katie Glueck, New York Times


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Generation Z Doesn’t Remember When America Worked

… Gen Z’s concerns seem to go beyond those gripping everyone in recent months. A generation turning to the left is colliding with a political system ever more structurally biased to the right. And a generation that wants the government to play an active role in improving people’s lives is confronting the fact that Washington has become less capable of getting anything done. Maybe young voters’ mood will improve in the coming weeks. But do Democrats have any hope of delivering what they want in the long term?

Young voters themselves do not seem convinced. Biden’s approval rating has dipped three times more among members of Gen Z than among Boomers. A recent poll from The New York Times and Siena College found that just one in 100 young people strongly approved of the president’s job performance, and 94 in 100 young Democrats believed someone else should run in 2024. (Among voters over age 64, by contrast, 22 percent strongly approved of Biden’s performance, and 42 percent of Democrats in this age group wanted the party to nominate a different candidate.) Moreover, in a Harvard poll conducted this spring, one in three young people said that “political involvement rarely has tangible results,” and two in five believed their vote “doesn’t make a difference.”

Over the past few weeks, I spoke with a number of political analysts and pollsters, as well as politically engaged young activists, to try to understand why the younger voters—and young progressives in particular—have been feeling so down. CONTINUED

Annie Lowrey, The Atlantic


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Manchin, Sinema and 2024

By helping Democrats pass a landmark $750 billion climate, tax and health care bill, Sens. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona have complicated their own re-election fortunes for 2024.

Why it matters: While Democrats have a credible chance to hold onto a narrow Senate majority this year, they’re staring at a rough political map in two years, when both of those seats are up — and when the party will also be forced to defend seats in red states like Montana and Ohio.

The fortunes of battle-tested Democrats like Sinema and Manchin will determine the party’s ability to hold a long-term Senate majority. CONTINUED

Josh Kraushaar, Axios


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All Pain, Whose Gain? The Surprising Implications of a New Legal Theory for Redistricting

Lots of pixels have been spilled on a legal theory once considered fringe, the Independent State Legislature doctrine. This theory threatens to wreak havoc with centuries of election law. Two upcoming Supreme Court redistricting cases cite this doctrine. Both are brought by Republican-controlled legislatures, so you’d think it would be of net benefit to their party. I did the math. Like the web ads say, the answer might surprise you. CONTINUED

Sam Wang, Sam’s Newsletter


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The same Joe Biden suddenly looks different

Joe Biden is no more or less capable a president than he was two months ago. His staff is no more or less competent.

But suddenly, images of Biden as a feeble septuagenarian atop a mismanaged White House have given way to those of an experienced leader, smiling behind aviator sunglasses, whose battle-tested team has delivered on a range of national priorities. A winning streak does that for you.

It has not happened because of a strategy shift or staff shakeup, though at low points allies wanted him to take those ritual steps. It’s been a combination of good luck, skill and persistence by a president and Democratic Party determined to act unilaterally where Republicans wouldn’t and strike compromises where Republicans would. CONTINUED

John Harwood, CNN


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Why Liz Cheney is likely on her way to a major defeat

… I’m going to cut right to the chase and say that it will take a small miracle for Cheney for her to win Tuesday’s Republican primary for Wyoming’s lone House seat. Statistically improbable things happen, but Cheney has both the polling and history against her.

The truth is that Cheney has been an underdog for re-election since she voted to impeach Trump at the beginning of 2021. Trump is the dominant figure in the GOP and voting to impeach Trump has turned out to be a sin in the voters’ minds that many have not forgiven.

For Cheney specifically, you can see this is in the CES polls of Wyoming voters taken in late 2020 and then late 2021. Cheney’s disapproval rating in this deeply Republican state went from 26% before her vote to impeach to 72% afterward. CONTINUED

Harry Enten, CNN


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