Why labor unions are more popular than they’ve been in six decades

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… Paradoxically, support for unions increases when unorganized workers feel economically secure — not when they would actually benefit most from joining a union.

The explanation for the relationship is twofold: First, some scholarship suggests workers will blame a poor economy on union overreach. More fundamentally, economic insecurity, especially an erosion in one’s material circumstances, makes people begrudge those who they think are better off. Nonunion workers who face hard times may resent the benefits that their unionized peers have. This feeling was evident during the Great Recession debates about the federal government bailout of the domestic auto industry. CONTINUED

Jake Rosenfeld (Washington U.-St. Louis), Monkey Cage

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Red wave crashing? GOP momentum slips as fall sprint begins

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The possibility of a great red wave still looms. But as the 2022 midterm elections enter their final two-month sprint, leading Republicans concede that their party’s advantage may be slipping even as Democrats confront their president’s weak standing, deep voter pessimism and the weight of history this fall.

The political landscape, while still in flux, follows a string of President Joe Biden’s legislative victories on climate, health care and gun violence, just as Donald Trump’s hand-picked candidates in electoral battlegrounds like Arizona, Georgia, Ohio and Pennsylvania struggle to broaden their appeal. But nothing has undermined the GOP’s momentum more than the Supreme Court’s stunning decision in June to end abortion protections, which triggered a swift backlash even in the reddest of red states. CONTINUED

Steve Peoples, Associated Press

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Americans increasingly concerned about political violence

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Against a backdrop of so much concern that democracy is under threat, Americans also see a rising potential for political violence: almost two-thirds think the coming years will bring an increase. And the percentage holding that view has itself been rising even higher, compared to 2021.

The prospect of violence is tied in part to a perception of widening divisions: a whopping 80% of Americans believe the U.S. is more divided now than it was during their parents’ generation. CONTINUED

Anthony Salvanto, CBS News

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Focus group: Trump voters on the FBI search, 2020 and the midterms

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To better understand the pulse of Republican politics at the moment, we spoke with a group of voters who would support former President Donald Trump if he ran again in 2024.

CBS News

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Trump is back in the headlines, and it may cost Republicans in November

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… Democrats have been gaining ground in their bid to hold on to the US Senate and House, and Trump likely has a lot to do with it – canceling out the normal midterm penalty with his own midterm penalty.

Right now, the generic congressional ballot is basically even. If anything, Democrats have a lead of a little less than a point on average. Earlier this summer, Republicans had a roughly 3-point advantage.

A lot has happened that may have caused this political shift, including the overturning of Roe v. Wade and falling gas prices. But when you look at people’s search interests online, it’s easy to see that Trump is playing a big role too. CONTINUED

Harry Enten, CNN

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Americans see politicized election system in U.S.

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Many Americans believe politics has entered into the nation’s vote-counting process, with potentially big ramifications for the next election: they think that it is at least somewhat likely that some state or county officials will refuse to certify election results because of political reasons.

And politics has surely entered the realm of public opinion about the voting and election process, as different parties see different problems. Democrats tend to see problems with access, while Republicans overwhelmingly see fraud. CONTINUED

Anthony Salvanto, Fred Backus & Jennifer De Pinto, CBS News

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