How Michigan voters feel about abortion, overturning Roe, possible ballot proposal

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A majority of Michigan voters “strongly disagree” with the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the 1973 landmark ruling in Roe v. Wade, and many say they would support an amendment to the state constitution to guarantee abortion access, according to a new WDIV/Detroit News poll.

A new survey, conducted between Aug. 29 and Sept. 1, found Michigan voters are feeling primarily motivated to vote because of issues surrounding abortion and women’s rights. A majority of voters said they oppose the decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, which protected the right to abortions nationwide, and would support constitutional change at the state level to secure legal abortion care. CONTINUED

Cassidy Johncox, WDIV

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It’s impossible to trust polls — or ignore them. Here’s how to stay sane.

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It feels impossible to trust polls — and equally impossible to ignore them. The polling industry faces well-known problems: Only 6 to 7 percent of people will pick up a phone call from a pollster; polls completely failed to find segments of Donald Trump’s base in 2020; and predicting exactly who will vote is mathematically thorny.

Yet polls are indispensable. They’re the only data source that directly asks people how they’re going to vote and credibly attempts to represent the whole electorate. …

So, I collected thousands of Senate polls from past elections, crunched the numbers and came up with some rules of thumb that can help the most wired, frenetic poll consumers stay sane as 2022 unfolds. CONTINUED

David Byler, Washington Post

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Two-thirds of independents say they don’t want Trump to run for president

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Former President Donald Trump continues to heavily suggest he will run for president in 2024, but a new poll out from NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist shows voters in the middle overwhelmingly don’t want him to give it another go.

Sixty-seven percent of independents said they do not want Trump to run again, while just 28% said they do. In 2020, Trump lost independents and lost the election. In 2016, Trump fared better with the group, but throughout his presidency and afterward he suffered with them and has never regained them. …

When it comes to the FBI search, a plurality (44%) of respondents said they think Trump did something illegal. Another 17% think he did something unethical, but not illegal. Nearly 30% maintain he did nothing wrong, including 63% of Republicans. CONTINUED

Domenico Montanaro, NPR News

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Learning from the 1998 and 2002 midterms

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The 1998 and 2002 elections remain the only times since 1932 that the president’s party has gained House seats in a midterm. …

The midterm dynamic can be very strong, producing huge partisan waves that result in large House (and Senate) losses for the president’s party. This is especially true when one party controls the White House and both houses of Congress — and is clearly responsible for the direction of the country. The dynamic also tends to be particularly strong during times of economic turmoil, whether recession, inflation, unemployment or high interest rates. Kitchen table issues get the voters’ attention very quickly.

What made 1998 and 2002 so different from every other midterm? CONTINUED

Stuart Rothenberg, Roll Call

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Democrats say they’re saving democracy. So why are they bending it?

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Last Thursday, the “unity president” gave one of the most divisive speeches ever delivered by a sitting president. Billed as a nonpolitical speech to the nation, it was instead an overtly partisan and angry screed, rationalized with self-serving rhetoric about saving the “soul of the nation” from the unpatriotic MAGA Republicans.

Standing in front of an inexplicably ominous blood-red background, Joe Biden railed against former President Donald Trump and MAGA Republicans (his fluid terminology), who, he claimed, “represent an extremism that threatens the very foundations of our republic.” He didn’t stop there, going on to call his political opponents not only “a threat to American democracy” but “a clear and present danger” to the country. CONTINUED

David Winston (Winston Group), Roll Call

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Trump should not run for president in 2024, majority of Americans say

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As former President Donald Trump considers launching another bid for the White House, more than six in 10 Americans do not want him to run in 2024, according to a new PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll. And while Trump’s possession of more than 10,000 government documents at his Florida home seems not to have changed the minds of his steady supporters, a plurality of Americans think he has done something illegal. …

Just 28 percent of independents believe Trump should run again, this poll found, while two-thirds say the former president should sit out the next election. According to 2020 exit polling, 41 percent of independents had voted for Trump’s reelection, suggesting a significant cratering of support since. CONTINUED

Matt Loffman, PBS NewsHour

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