CBS News poll: Big majority favor maximum age limits for elected officials

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We live in an era of stark political division, but there’s at least one aspect of politics both sides agree on: a maximum age limit for elected officials. Most feel that after a certain age they should not be permitted to hold office.

There isn’t just agreement across political lines, but across demographic groups, like age, too. Young and old, including seniors, favor maximum age limits for elected officials. CONTINUED

Jennifer De Pinto, CBS News

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POLITICO-Harvard poll: Gun policies, along with abortion, inflation and economy, are top concern for voters

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Democratic candidates across the country are aiming to make abortion a frontline issue in the upcoming midterms, but gun policies ranked higher as an immediate concern for voters, according to a POLITICO-Harvard survey released Thursday.

The survey asked 1,815 registered voters to say which issues were “extremely important” in their congressional vote. Abortion ranked fourth with 44 percent of them saying it is “extremely important,” and while it polled much higher than it had in 2020 or 2018, it still fell below inflation (51 percent), the economy and jobs (49 percent), and guns (46 percent). CONTINUED

Dan Goldberg, Politico

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Two Months That Turned the 2022 Midterms on Their Head

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With control of both the Senate and the House very clearly on the line, this election has become a contest about which party can more effectively frame this 2022 midterm election on terms favorable to themselves. The default scripting for midterms is as a referendum on the sitting president, particularly if his party is in control of Congress as well. The governing party has full responsibility, total culpability for anything that goes wrong. Making matters worse for the incumbent is the almost ironclad rules that members of a president’s party are less enthusiastic and less likely to vote than those in the opposition party; and that the narrow tenth of the electorate that truly is independent will be their normal fickle selves and develop buyer’s remorse.

Until this summer, this midterm precisely fit into that default position—not a good thing for President Biden and Democrats. …

The macro situation has changed dramatically over the last two months. Keep in mind, however, that the traditional beginning of the general election season is today, Labor Day, and there are still 64 days until the November 8 election. CONTINUED

Charlie Cook

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Democrats don’t see the economy like everyone else right now

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Despite job gains and signs of easing inflation, six out of 10 Americans think the nation’s economy is in a recession, according to the latest poll from the PBS NewsHour, NPR and Marist, and more than half think President Joe Biden has weakened the economy.

As the country gears up for midterm elections that will determine who controls Congress, how people view the country’s economic outlook seems to be shaped not just by confusing or conflicting indicators, but also by politics.

A majority of Democrats and Biden’s 2020 voters don’t see a recession; everybody else seems to disagree. CONTINUED

Laura Santhanam, PBS NewsHour

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Forecasting 2022 Using the Fundamentals: The Structural and Structure X Models

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Key Points
• A congressional forecasting model using political and economic fundamentals suggests that Republicans are favored to flip both the House and the Senate.
• A modified version of the model that also incorporates expert analysis also suggests that Republicans are favored in both chambers, but by less than the model that does not incorporate such analysis. CONTINUED

Charles Tien (Hunter College) & Michael S. Lewis-Beck (U. of Iowa), Sabato’s Crystal Ball

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The Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2022 Midterm Congressional Elections

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Key Points
• This article updates and applies the seats-in-trouble congressional election forecasting equations to the 2022 midterm elections.
• The goal is to use micro level (congressional district and state) competitiveness assessments in combination with their electoral history to statistically generate an accurate prediction of the election’s national outcome.
• The seats-in-trouble forecasts for the 2022 midterms are losses for the Democrats of 42 seats in the House of Representatives and 1 seat in the Senate. CONTINUED

James E. Campbell (U. at Buffalo, SUNY), Sabato’s Crystal Ball

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