Arizona: Kelly up in Senate race, Hobbs & Lake battle for governorship

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Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly’s advantage over Republican challenger Blake Masters narrows, as the Arizona governor’s race also tightens. In addition, a larger share of Republicans than Democrats is more enthused to vote this year. That’s according to the latest Fox News survey of Arizona registered voters, released Thursday.

The poll finds 46% would support Kelly if voting today, while 40% would back Masters. That 6-point advantage is within the margin of sampling error — and down from 8 points in August, when 50% supported Kelly vs. 42% for Masters. …

In addition, the governor’s race has tightened, with Democratic candidate Katie Hobbs up over Republican Kari Lake by just 1 point. That edge transfers to Lake, however, when looking only at those who are certain they will vote (a rating of 10 on a 0-10 scale). CONTINUED

Victoria Balara, Fox News

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UK: Labour open up 33-point vote intention lead in wake of mini-Budget chaos

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The latest YouGov/Times vote intention poll shows the Labour party on 54% of the vote, up nine points on their previous record high with YouGov on Monday. The Conservatives meanwhile have dropped to 21% of current vote intention, down seven points.

As well as being their record highest share ever in a YouGov poll, Labour’s 33-point lead is the highest figure the party has ever recorded in any published poll since the late 1990s. CONTINUED

Patrick English, YouGov

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Midterm momentum shifts back to GOP as inflation fears grow

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As backlash to the end of Roe v. Wade came to dominate U.S politics this summer, poll after poll showed the tide turning in Democrats’ favor — leading many to wonder whether President Biden’s side might avoid the sort of sweeping midterm losses that typically befall the party in power.

But a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll suggests the winds may be shifting again — and that Democrats would be wise not to ignore new signs of Republican momentum, particularly around the all-important issue of inflation. …

More than three-quarters of Americans (76%) now rate the condition of the economy as “fair” or “poor,” up 6 percentage points since April, the last time the question was asked. CONTINUED

Andrew Romano, Yahoo News

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The public’s opinion on religion in sports

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More people approve than disapprove of the Supreme Court’s recent ruling to allow a high school football coach to pray on the field. More than 6 in 10 think a coach leading a team in prayer, a player leading a team in prayer, or a coach praying on the field without asking the team to join in should all be allowed at public high school sporting events.

Few Americans are concerned that the Supreme Court ruling will make students feel pressure to participate in prayer or make students feel less welcome participating in high school sports. Most do not think the court’s ruling will lead to other public school officials praying with students during school hours. And just 30% of the public feels that religion has too much influence on what children are taught in school. CONTINUED

AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research

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Supreme Court Trust, Job Approval at Historical Lows

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Forty-seven percent of U.S. adults say they have “a great deal” or “a fair amount” of trust in the judicial branch of the federal government that is headed by the Supreme Court. This represents a 20-percentage-point drop from two years ago, including seven points since last year, and is now the lowest in Gallup’s trend by six points. The judicial branch’s current tarnished image contrasts with trust levels exceeding two-thirds in most years in Gallup’s trend that began in 1972.

In addition to documenting record-low trust in the federal judiciary, the new Gallup poll also finds a record-tying-low 40% of Americans saying they approve, and a record-high 58% saying they disapprove, of the job the Supreme Court is doing. CONTINUED

Jeffrey M. Jones, Gallup

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Following the Money: What Outside Spending Tells Us About the Race for the House

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Key Points
• The spending decisions by big outside House groups can inform us about the most competitive House races.
• So far, outside groups have spent money in 57 House districts. The lion’s share of those districts that have seen spending are held by Democrats, indicating that Democrats are playing significantly more defense than Republicans.
• The vast majority of the districts we rate as the most competitive — those in the Toss-up or Leans categories — have seen at least some outside spending so far. CONTINUED

Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball

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