CNN Poll: Biden’s approval rises, but national economic outlook remains gloomy

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Americans’ views of President Joe Biden have rebounded slightly from their dismal outlook over the summer, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS. But public assessment of the economy remains grim, and Americans remain largely unconvinced that Biden, Congress or the government as a whole are meaningfully addressing major issues facing the country.

Biden’s overall job approval rating has recovered modestly from its worst summer doldrums: 44% of US adults approve, up from 38% in CNN’s June and July polling. …

Just 22% of Americans rate economic conditions in the country as good, with 41% calling conditions somewhat poor, and another 37% saying they’re very poor. The percentage saying conditions are good is a slight uptick from 18% this summer. CONTINUED

Ariel Edwards-Levy, CNN

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Abortion Grows as a Motivator for Midterm Voters

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About a month ahead of the 2022 midterm election, abortion continues to grow as a motivating issue for voters, especially among Democrats and those living in states where abortion is now illegal, the latest KFF Health Tracking Poll finds.

Half (50%) of voters now say the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade has made them more motivated to vote in this year’s elections, up from 43% in July shortly after the Court’s decision and from 37% in a similar question in May, prior to the decision. About two thirds of Democrats (69%), and half of independents (49%), cite the Court’s decision as a motivator, as do a third of Republicans (32%).

Many races in the midterms will be decided by marginal changes in turnout, with a few voters making a difference. The new survey reveals how abortion access and reproductive health is motivating majorities of Democratic women, women of reproductive age, and Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters in states where abortion is currently illegal. CONTINUED

Kaiser Family Foundation

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Can Democrats hold the Senate? In Nevada, it’s all but a tie – USA TODAY/Suffolk Poll

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Nevada Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, the most endangered Democratic senator on the ballot on Nov. 8, holds the smallest of leads over Republican challenger Adam Laxalt, 46%-44%, a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll finds.

Laxalt has shown momentum since the USA TODAY Network survey in August, narrowing a seven percentage-point gap after hammering his rival on the economy and gaining ground among Hispanic voters. …

The Nevada governor’s race is also tight: 44% for Republican challenger Joe Lombardo, who is one point ahead of Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak, at 43%. CONTINUED

Susan Page, USA Today

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As Biden’s New Drug Policy Shows, When It Comes to Legalization It’s the Political Leaders Who Are Being Led

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… In 1990, only 16 percent of respondents to the University of Chicago’s General Social Survey favored the legalization of marijuana. By 2018, the most recent year with available data, the share of supporters had risen to 61 percent. The rate of increase was even higher among Democrats: from 17 percent in 1990 to 69 percent just 28 years later.

It’s rare for public opinion to swing so dramatically on any political issue. But drug legalization is an especially unusual case because American citizens started rethinking their beliefs well before their elected representatives did. Even today, political leaders still seem to be lagging behind the rapidly shifting attitudes of their constituents.

Political scientists have traditionally emphasized the role of political elites in shaping the views of ordinary citizens. On many issues, most Democrats and Republicans in the mass public accept the positions advocated by the leaders of their favored party. … But the rise in support for legal marijuana can’t be explained that way. It began in the 1990s, well before gaining the endorsement of prominent politicians in either party. CONTINUED

David A. Hopkins (Boston College), Honest Graft

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Texas: Abbott Edges O’Rourke in Governor’s Race

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In the Texas governor’s race, Republican incumbent Governor Greg Abbott has a 4-point edge over Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke among registered voters statewide. However, Abbott’s advantage over O’Rourke doubles to 8 points among those who say they definitely plan to vote.

Four points separate Abbott (49%) and O’Rourke (45%) in the Texas governor’s race among registered voters statewide, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Abbott receives majority support (52%) against O’Rourke (44%) among those who say they will definitely vote. …

A majority of Texans (53%) disapprove of how President Joe Biden is performing in office. 39% approve. By more than two-to-one, Texans are more likely to strongly disapprove (42%) of how Biden is doing his job than to strongly approve (18%). CONTINUED

Marist Institute for Public Opinion

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Polls almost always move toward Republicans in the fall

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There’s little surprise so far in October. According to social media, half the world spent the weekend at a pumpkin patch, and the other half spent it debating the merits of Christopher Columbus. The usual schools lead the college football rankings. And political coverage is telling you that “the polls have tightened.” Whether, or by how much, polls actually tighten depends on the specific race one is looking at, but some polls showing some closer races in October has become utterly predictable. CONTINUED

Natalie Jackson, National Journal

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