2022 Puts the Idiosyncrasies of the Senate on Full Display

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A diagram of the direction of the 2022 campaign would look like a zigzag. Democrats faced near gale-force headwinds into June, but that moderated considerably in the first half of the summer, with the most optimistic of Democrats having visions of retaining majorities in both the House and the Senate.

In recent weeks, though, those winds in Democrats’ faces have partially returned, almost ensuring that the party will lose its House majority and turning the Senate into something closer to a fair fight, with Democrats still possessing a slight edge. …

In some states and districts, the renewed Democratic headwinds may not be sufficient to offset the newfound Republican disadvantage of having too many exotic and potentially problematic nominees, particularly in the Senate, where every single seat can represent the difference between keeping a Chuck Schumer-led Democratic Senate or a Republican majority led by Mitch McConnell. CONTINUED

Charlie Cook

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CNN Poll: Voters tilt toward Republicans over Democrats in competitive districts

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Americans are closely divided over which party’s candidate they would support in their congressional districts, with preferences in competitive districts tilting toward Republicans, according to a new CNN Poll conducted by SSRS. But about 4 in 10 voters say neither party’s candidates in their congressional districts have a clear plan for solving the country’s problems.

Among likely voters nationwide, the race is a tight split, with 50% backing the Democratic candidate and 47% behind the Republican. But in competitive congressional districts, Democratic support among likely voters dips and preferences tilt toward the Republicans: 48% of likely voters in that group prefer the Republican candidate, 43% the Democrat. CONTINUED

Jennifer Agiesta, CNN

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2022’s Ballot Measures: States are set to vote on a range of measures dealing with abortion, elections, marijuana, and more

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As happens every 2 years, voters across the country find a vast array of ballot measures to vote on in 2022.

What follows is our rundown of the measures on voters’ ballots this year, based on tracking by Ballotpedia, our own research, and interviews with political experts in many of these states.

The most closely watched issues will include abortion, with 3 states voting on protecting abortion rights and 2 others considering whether to allow for limitations on abortion; election administration, including efforts to both expand and tighten voting rules; policy toward immigrants; and further expansion of legalized recreational marijuana. CONTINUED

Louis Jacobson, Sabato’s Crystal Ball

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New York State: Hochul Leading Zeldin in Governor’s Contest

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New York’s Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul leads her Republican opponent Lee Zeldin by 10 percentage points among New York’s electorate. Her lead narrows to 8 points among those who say they will definitely vote. In New York’s race for U.S. Senate, Democratic incumbent Chuck Schumer has a commanding double-digit lead, among registered voters, over Republican Joe Pinion. Among those who say they will definitely vote, Schumer is up by 13 points over Pinion. …

48% of the New York electorate approve of how President Joe Biden is performing in office. 49%, including 16% of Democrats, disapprove. CONTINUED

Marist Institute for Public Opinion

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Wisconsin: Johnson leads Barnes in Senate race, Evers and Michels in a gubernatorial toss-up

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A new Marquette Law School Poll survey of Wisconsin finds a wider margin in the U.S. Senate race than a month ago. Among likely voters, Sen. Ron Johnson is supported by 52% and Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes is the choice of 46%. In September, among likely voters, Johnson received 49% and Barnes 48%. All vote results include undecided voters who lean to a candidate.

The governor’s race has tightened to a tossup: Among likely voters, 47% support Democrat incumbent Gov. Tony Evers, while 46% favor the Republican challenger, Tim Michels. CONTINUED

Marquette Law School Poll

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People are feeling increasingly negative about their personal finances

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About four weeks ahead of the midterm elections, the public continues to be largely negative in its assessment of the economy and President Biden’s handling of it. After holding steady for years, concerns about personal finances are increasing.

However, most people do not hold Biden’s policies responsible for high prices. Republicans are much more likely to blame Biden, while Democrats cite factors outside his control.

Twenty-five percent of adults say things in the country are heading in the right direction and 74% think the country is moving in the wrong direction. This is similar to the AP-NORC poll conducted in September. The president’s overall approval rating is also holding steady from September. CONTINUED

AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research

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