Inflation is a Political Wrecking Ball

· Leave a Comment

… Americans continue to watch their paychecks erode as they confront higher prices in nearly every aspect of life. It will take an act of God or an incredibly inept Republican Party to fail to convert this economic pain among voters into control of one or both legislative chambers in the November elections.

As recent Global Progress/YouGov data from 11 leading democratic countries shows, inflation is a political wrecking ball for incumbent governments. Although citizens don’t have a consistent idea of what should be done about inflation—and many opposition parties have no clear alternative policy ideas on the matter—most voters don’t like the situation and are apt to punish sitting parties for rising costs regardless of their actions. CONTINUED

John Halpin, The Liberal Patriot

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

American politics fated to remain on ‘the knife’s edge’ as voters align between candidates in durable patterns

· Leave a Comment

In key races across the country, the electorate is continuing to divide along the demographic and generational lines that have left the two parties in rough parity for years – limiting each side’s ability to score unexpected breakthroughs or to amass sweeping gains in November.

A wide array of public polls shows that in key contests, voters are aligning between Republican and Democratic candidates in remarkably similar patterns, with only very few exceptions. Almost all major contested statewide races are being defined by a huge gender gap that could prove even larger than in the past several elections. Voters in races almost everywhere are also sharply dividing along lines of education and generation. And while the gap in partisan preferences between Whites and voters of color may narrow somewhat from recent experience, the racial contrast in support for the parties remains stark as well. CONTINUED

Ronald Brownstein, CNN

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Ohio: Republican JD Vance has slight lead on Democrat Tim Ryan in Senate race

· Leave a Comment

Republican J.D. Vance has opened a narrow edge over Democrat Tim Ryan in the Senate race in Ohio, a USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll finds, as President Joe Biden’s unpopularity complicates the campaign by the moderate Democratic congressman to flip a GOP-held seat. Vance leads 47%-45%, a shift from Ryan’s one-point advantage last month, 47%-46%. …

Vance is embracing Donald Trump — “J.D. is kissing my ass,” the former president boasted at a rally last month — but Ryan has distanced himself from Biden on student-loan forgiveness, border control and other issues. The poll makes it clear why that makes political sense. CONTINUED

Susan Page, USA Today

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

The Uncomfortable Truths That Could Yet Defeat Fascism

· Leave a Comment

Polls swing this way and that way, but the larger story they tell is unmistakable. With the midterm elections, Americans are being offered a clear choice between continued and expanded liberal democracy, on the one hand, and fascism, on the other. And it’s more or less a dead heat.

It is time to speak an uncomfortable truth: The pro-democracy side is at risk not just because of potential electoral rigging, voter suppression and other forms of unfair play by the right, as real as those things are. In America (as in various other countries), the pro-democracy cause — a coalition of progressives, liberals, moderates, even decent Republicans who still believe in free elections and facts — is struggling to win the battle for hearts and minds.

The pro-democracy side can still very much prevail. But it needs to go beyond its present modus operandi, a mix of fatalism and despair and living in perpetual reaction to the right and policy wonkiness and praying for indictments. It needs to build a new and improved movement — feisty, galvanizing, magnanimous, rooted and expansionary — that can outcompete the fascists and seize the age. CONTINUED

Anand Giridharadas, New York Times

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Half of Americans see antisemitism as a serious problem online; fewer do in their local communities

· Leave a Comment

Recent statements by two well-known Americans brought headlines about the issue of antisemitism in the United States. Last week, rapper Ye, formerly known as Kanye West, was locked out of his Twitter account after posting that he would go “death con 3 on JEWISH PEOPLE.” Then, yesterday, former President Donald Trump posted on his Truth Social platform that American Jews must “get their act together” and show more appreciation for the state of Israel “before it is too late.”

A YouGov poll conducted after Ye’s social media post but before Trump’s finds that half of Americans (50%) believe antisemitism is at least a somewhat serious problem on the internet and a majority say the same about antisemitism in the U.S. more broadly (57%); 42% say it is a somewhat or very serious problem both online and in the U.S. Far fewer (24%) view it as a serious issue in their local communities. CONTINUED

Taylor Orth, YouGov

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Republicans Gain Edge as Voters Worry About Economy, Times/Siena Poll Finds

· Leave a Comment

Republicans enter the final weeks of the contest for control of Congress with a narrow but distinctive advantage as the economy and inflation have surged as the dominant concerns, giving the party momentum to take back power from Democrats in next month’s midterm elections, a New York Times/Siena College poll has found.

The poll shows that 49 percent of likely voters said they planned to vote for a Republican to represent them in Congress on Nov. 8, compared with 45 percent who planned to vote for a Democrat. …

With inflation unrelenting and the stock market steadily on the decline, the share of likely voters who said economic concerns were the most important issues facing America has leaped since July, to 44 percent from 36 percent — far higher than any other issue. And voters most concerned with the economy favored Republicans overwhelmingly, by more than a two-to-one margin. CONTINUED

Shane Goldmacher, New York Times

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack