16 slides that show why tomorrow is very likely to be a great night for Republicans up and down the ballot. CONTINUED
Public Opinion Strategies
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Key Points
• Our final Senate pick is 51-49 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 seat.
• Our final House pick is 237-198 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 24 seats.
• Our projected gubernatorial picture is 29-21 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 governorship. CONTINUED
Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik & J. Miles Coleman, Sabato’s Crystal Ball
Crystal Ball 2022 Senate ratings
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American politics has been a stalemate between the two parties for nearly 30 years. Every time it looks as though one party gains a lasting upper hand — Democrats after 2008 and 2020, Republicans after 1994 and 2010 — its legislative overreach sends it back to parity.
Tuesday’s midterm elections could be a continuation of that political trench warfare. Inflation, crime, progressive attempts at overreach and a general sense that President Biden is not up to the job will likely deliver a surprisingly large victory to Republicans. I predict the GOP will win the national popular vote by about 5.5 points, likely gaining between 31 and 40 House seats in the process. I also expect it will retake control of the Senate, gaining two to four seats. CONTINUED
Henry Olsen, Washington Post
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New Hampshire Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan and her Republican opponent, Don Bolduc, are neck-and-neck only days away from Tuesday’s election. In New Hampshire’s First Congressional District, incumbent Democrat Chris Pappas and Republican Karoline Leavitt are also deadlocked. Incumbent Democrat Ann Kuster holds a small lead over Republican Robert Burns in New Hampshire’s Second Congressional District. Governor Chris Sununu continues to lead Democrat Tom Sherman by double-digits. CONTINUED
University of New Hampshire Survey Center
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Swing voters often determine who wins national elections — but they don’t swing for the reasons that much of the media and many politicians imply. …
What’s actually going on with swing voters? Based on previous election cycles and scholarly research, here are four ways to think about them:
Swing voters are not consistent centrists. Swing voters generally don’t have across-the-board liberal or conservative stances, and are likely to identify as moderates. They have some aversion to both the two major political parties and partisanship itself. But they are not all alike: Some have a mix of liberal stances and conservative ones; others are in the center on most major issues; a third bloc doesn’t have set views in part because they just don’t follow politics closely. CONTINUED
Perry Bacon Jr., Washington Post
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Armed men in masks and tactical gear have shown up at secure ballot drop boxes. Candidates of both parties have been physically attacked, election workers intimidated. And threats against members of Congress are up tenfold.
For many voters, a vicious spiral of violence and fear is creating angst, paranoia and an overwhelming sense of dread that the nation is on the eve of destruction, according to a growing body of public opinion research.
Democrats worry that the GOP is bent on seizing power regardless of the outcome of elections — a concern rooted in former President Donald Trump’s lies about the 2020 race he lost. Polls show a large portion of Republicans fear democracy is in peril because they believe that elections are rigged against them. CONTINUED
Alex Seitz-Wald & Jonathan Allen, NBC News
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