Pollsters sweat another Election Day reckoning

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It wouldn’t be election eve if pollsters weren’t nervous.

At a base level, the final surveys in the states that will determine which party controls the Senate next year fall into two camps. Polls from Republican-affiliated firms point to a GOP victory — and perhaps even a romp through some blue-tinted states.

But independent polls — many of which underestimated then-President Donald Trump in 2020 — suggest Democrats still have a shot to hold off the GOP in the most competitive races on the map. CONTINUED

Steven Shepard, Politico

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Biden Approval Rating, Economy Weigh On Democrats’ Midterm Election Hopes

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President Joe Biden’s approval rating remains deep underwater as Americans head to the polls Tuesday for a midterm election that may shift the balance of power in Congress, the November IBD/TIPP Poll finds.

Biden’s job approval rating ticked up two-tenths of a point to 45.5 in the new IBD/TIPP Poll. The IBD/TIPP presidential job approval figure indicates that 45.5% of adults who stated an opinion approve of Biden’s job performance and 54.5% disapprove, in a measure that excludes those who were unsure or declined to say.

Including the full survey group, a steady 41% of American adults approve of how Biden is handling the presidency, and 49% disapprove. CONTINUED

Jed Graham, Investor’s Business Daily

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Election Day 2022: What voters are thinking about

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With the 2022 congressional election concluding Tuesday on Election Day, the Economist/YouGov poll is publishing its final numbers for the generic congressional ballot: 49% of likely voters — including people who are undecided but lean for either the Democratic or the Republican Party candidates — say they will vote for the Republican Party candidate and 48% say they will vote for the Democratic candidate. …

Likely voters are divided by party on what they’re thinking about when making their choice. Three-quarters of likely voters (73%) say they are thinking “a lot” about the economy and 68% say the same about inflation/prices. Majorities are also thinking a lot about crime (59%), government spending (55%), and immigration (55%). Half (52%) are thinking a lot about abortion. CONTINUED

Kathy Frankovic & Linley Sanders, YouGov

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How a GOP Congress Could Roll Back Freedoms Nationwide

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If Republicans win control of one or both congressional chambers this week, they will likely begin a project that could reshape the nation’s political and legal landscape: imposing on blue states the rollback of civil rights and liberties that has rapidly advanced through red states since 2021.

Over the past two years, the 23 states where Republicans hold unified control of the governorship and state legislature have approved the most aggressive wave of socially conservative legislation in modern times. In highly polarizing battles across the country, GOP-controlled states have passed laws imposing new restrictions on voting, banning or limiting access to abortion, retrenching LGBTQ rights, removing licensing and training requirements for concealed carry of firearms, and censoring how public-school teachers (and in some cases university professors and even private employers) can talk about race, gender, and sexual orientation.

With much less attention, Republicans in the U.S. House and Senate have introduced legislation to write each of these red-state initiatives into federal law. The practical effect of these proposals would be to require blue states to live under the restrictive social policies that have burned through red states since President Joe Biden’s victory in 2020. CONTINUED

Ronald Brownstein, The Atlantic

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‘Channeling the Mama Bear’: How Covid Closures Became Today’s Curriculum Wars

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Debates over what children are reading and learning in school, and who gets to decide, have divided school board and other state and local races nationwide. But most Americans, and especially parents of school-aged children, are satisfied with their local schools, found a new survey by Morning Consult for The New York Times. Yet there is one issue that generated more opposition than any other: teaching about gender diversity, and about the rights of gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender people.

This topic — more than teaching about critical race theory or social-emotional learning — was the most divisive, found the survey of 4,421 people in October. CONTINUED

Claire Cain Miller, New York Times

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Who Will Win the Battle for Congress? Four Scenarios.

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Just about anything is still possible in this year’s midterm elections. Everything from a Democratic hold in the Senate and a fairly close race for the House to something like a Republican rout is well within the range of realistic possibilities on Tuesday.

Why such a wide range? With so many races on edge, it wouldn’t take much for the final outcome to feel very good, or very bad, for either party.

In the Senate, the races likeliest to decide control remain exceptionally close, with the poll averages showing essentially a dead-heat in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona and even New Hampshire. With just a few lucky breaks, either party could win control.

There’s a similar story in the House. While Republicans are plainly favored to win the chamber, dozens of races are tossups. It wouldn’t take much for Democrats to keep the race fairly close, perhaps delaying a call on House control for many hours or perhaps even days. On the other hand, it wouldn’t take much for Republicans to pick up dozens of seats, leaving the impression that 2022 was something like a wave election. CONTINUED

Nate Cohn, New York Times

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