How Democrats Avoided a Red Wave

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The coalition of voters who turned out to oppose Donald Trump in 2018 and 2020 largely reassembled yesterday, frustrating Republican expectations of a sweeping red wave.

Under the pressure of high inflation and widespread disenchantment with President Joe Biden’s job performance, that coalition of young voters, people of color, college-educated white voters, and women eroded at its edges. And because Democrats began the night with so little margin for error in Congress, that erosion—combined with high Republican turnout—seemed likely to allow the GOP to seize control of the House, and possibly the Senate as well.

But even if the GOP does squeeze out majorities in one or both chambers when the final votes are counted, its margins will be exceedingly narrow, with control of the Senate, once again, possibly turning on another Georgia runoff. Up and down the ballot, Democrats dominated among voters who believe that abortion should remain legal—despite predictions from Republicans and many media analysts that the issue had faded in importance. …

The results largely followed the outline of what I’ve called a “double negative” election. On balance, voter dissatisfaction with Biden’s performance meant that Democrats faced more losses, but the continuing unease about the Republican Party lowered the ceiling on GOP gains well below what the party might have expected. CONTINUED

Ronald Brownstein, The Atlantic

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Calcified Politics Gives Us Another Close Election

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Just as Democrats did in 2020, Republicans came into the 2022 midterms expecting a landslide. Sky-high inflation, an unpopular President, and pessimism about the direction of the country all pointed to a ‘typical’ midterm romp for the party out of power. But, as we have written extensively over the last two years, other fundamentals matter in our politics; fundamental structural realities make ‘landslide’ elections harder and harder to come by.

First, as I wrote earlier this fall (citing the amazing work of political scientists John Sides, Chris Tausanovitch, and Lynn Vavreck), events and the responses to them from politicians no longer have the ability to deeply and fundamentally reshape our politics or political coalitions. With fewer people willing to ‘defect’, even when they are unhappy with the status quo, you get more close elections and fewer ‘wave’ elections. Also, when every election is an existential election, the drop-off among ‘in-party’ voters, which was once common in midterm elections, is no longer the case.

Mike Podhorzer, the former AFL-CIO political director and progressive strategist, has long argued that the 2018 and 2020 elections proved that there is an anti-MAGA voting majority in this country. As long as these voters turn out, he’s argued, Democrats will remain competitive in battleground states and districts. CONTINUED

Amy Walter, Cook Political Report with Amy Walter

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Democrats fend off headwinds from Biden and economy: Exit poll analysis

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Democrats pushed back against historic trends in the 2022 midterms, overcoming broadly negative economic attitudes and Joe Biden’s unpopularity to hold more seats than typical in the face of such headwinds.

Their competitiveness came down to a variety of factors — support for abortion rights, negative views of Donald Trump, rejection of election denial, broad backing from young voters and surprising strength among independents among them. The result was a battle in the trenches, district by district and state by state, for House and Senate control.

The hurdle for Democrats was high with 76% in ABC News exit poll results rating the economy negatively, 24 percentage points more than two years ago when Biden took office and 45 points more than in the last midterms four years ago. CONTINUED

Gary Langer, Christine Filer, Steven Sparks & Allison De Jong, ABC News

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George Saunders on the ‘Braindead Megaphone’ That Makes Our Politics So Awful

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The writer shares his observations on how social media has shaped the American psyche — and how more compassion and affection could help.

The Ezra Klein Show

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The Midterms Are a Shocking Vote of Confidence for Democrats

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It is the normal state of affairs for a newly elected president to see his party rebuked decisively in the first midterm election. When the president is presiding over a bad economy — and, despite low unemployment, this very much is one — this tendency becomes something close to an iron law.

The 2022 midterm elections appear to have broken that law. Democratic candidates for House, Senate, and governor have all performed far better than almost anybody expected. By the standards of how midterms elections go, it should be considered a vote of confidence in the party. CONTINUED

Jonathan Chait, New York Magazine

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How not to fall for postelection conspiracy theories

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We finally made it to Election Day. Yet it will be a week, or even more in some cases, before all ballots are counted and we know the outcome of every race. If neither party runs out to an early lead, it’s entirely possible that it will take a few days for control of the Senate or House to be determined.

I can’t tell you who will win as of this publication (6 p.m. EST on Election Day). But what I can give you is a way to help combat postelection conspiracy theories with some facts about vote-counting and what is about to happen. Let’s dive into the weeds on counting votes. CONTINUED

Natalie Jackson, National Journal

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