How Religion Intersects With Americans’ Views on the Environment

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Most U.S. adults – including a solid majority of Christians and large numbers of people who identify with other religious traditions – consider the Earth sacred and believe God gave humans a duty to care for it, according to a new Pew Research Center survey.

But the survey also finds that highly religious Americans (those who say they pray each day, regularly attend religious services and consider religion very important in their lives) are far less likely than other U.S. adults to express concern about warming temperatures around the globe. CONTINUED

Becka A. Alper, Pew Research Center

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Anti-corporate sentiment in U.S. is now widespread in both parties

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The U.S. public’s views of banks and other financial institutions, as well as large corporations, have become much more negative in recent years. Today, these institutions are both held in low esteem by Americans in both parties. …

While Democrats’ views of banks and big corporations have only modestly changed since 2019 (41% vs. 37%), Republicans’ assessments have become much more negative. Three years ago, Republicans were far more likely than Democrats to say banks and other financial institutions (63% vs. 37%) and large corporations (54% vs. 23%) had a positive effect on the way things were going in the country.

Republicans have also become much more negative in their opinions of technology companies. CONTINUED

Amina Dunn & Andy Cerda, Pew Research Center

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The Pollster Who Predicted a Red Wave Explains Himself

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In 2016 and 2020, Trafalgar Group did what many more other pollsters could not: come close to accurately portraying America’s support for Donald Trump. In 2022, the company’s polls once again showed a picture of Republican strength, helping create a widespread impression that a “red wave” was about to crest. …

Weeks before the midterms, I had spoken with Trafalgar’s CEO, Robert Cahaly, who predicted Republican victory, and said he wanted to be the “Elon Musk of polling.” I spoke with him again this week about what went wrong with his polling and where he goes from here. CONTINUED

Benjamin Hart, New York Magazine

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Georgia’s Runoff is the Opening Battle of the 2024 Senate Cycle

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Key Points
• The looming Georgia Senate runoff is both the final race of 2022 and the first race of 2024, a Senate cycle in which Democrats are playing a lot of defense.
• The Democrats could run the Senate more smoothly if they can get a “real” majority of 51.
• But the primary importance of the runoff is electoral: Democrats could really use an extra buffer seat as they try to hang on in a couple of years. CONTINUED

Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball

2024 Senate races

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Republicans prefer Ron DeSantis to Donald Trump as their 2024 presidential nominee

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Nowhere is the impact of the Republican Party’s election underperformance more apparent than in changes in how Republicans view former President Donald Trump, who announced his 2024 candidacy Tuesday, after the close of the latest Economist/YouGov Poll. Before the election, 60% of Republicans wanted Trump to run again in 2024. In the latest poll, just 47% do — a drop of 13 percentage points in just a little more than one week. Support for Trump running again dropped as much among Republicans who identify as part of the MAGA movement as among those who do not.

And when it comes to a 2024 matchup between the former president and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis — who won reelection last week by a margin of nearly 20 points — the numbers also look bad for Trump: Republicans prefer DeSantis over Trump by 46% to 39%. CONTINUED

Kathy Frankovic & Taylor Orth, YouGov

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Why no red wave?

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History said there should be a red wave.

After all, on average, in the 19 midterms between the end of World War II and this one, the White House party lost 27 House seats, and four in the Senate. And these were not average times. The president’s approval rating was one of the lowest on record and while the economy was strong on job creation, what tends to count most politically—changes in real disposable income—were problematic as inflation cancelled out income gains.

Models based on those fundamentals predicted a loss of 45 Democratic seats. …

Why did Democrats beat the odds?

There’s lots more data to crunch, but at least three factors appeared to play starring roles: abortion rights, Donald Trump and candidate quality. CONTINUED

Mark Mellman (Mellman Group), The Hill

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