The Democrats’ Tenuous Hold on the Suburbs

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Democrats are feeling good about their prospects in 2024. There appears to be little interest in changing their party’s image, which remains pretty terrible in most voters’ eyes. …

The idea seems to be that the suburbs are full of liberal, highly-educated voters who are likely to be permanent recruits to the anti-MAGA army. There are certainly some, but actually-existing suburban voters are quite different—and more complex—than this caricature.

Contrary to popular perception, less than a third of the suburban vote nationwide is made up of college-educated whites, the presumed locus of maximum appeal for anti-MAGAism. In fact, about three-fifths of suburban white voters are working class (noncollege). …

And just how much hold do the Democrats have on suburban voters anyway? In the AP/NORC VoteCast survey, the most reliable election survey available, Democrats carried suburban voters nationwide by a single point in 2022. That’s a slippage of 9 points from the Democrats’ 10 point margin in 2020. Interestingly, the slippage in Democratic support from 2020 to 2022 was actually larger among nonwhite than white suburban voters.

These data indicate strongly that Democrats might not be in quite the catbird seat they think they are with suburban voters and therefore with the 2024 election. CONTINUED

Ruy Teixeira, The Liberal Patriot

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Fear Was More Powerful Than Anger This Year

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Republicans have been effectively stuck in an abusive relationship, unwilling or unable to extricate themselves from a toxic situation. Donald Trump and his MAGA movement have had a virtual stranglehold on the GOP for six years, and now the consequences for the party are becoming increasingly apparent.

From the circumstances surrounding the FBI’s August search for classified documents at Trump’s home at Mar-a-Lago, to his refusal to repudiate his recent dinner with antisemites, and his recent comment that the Constitution might need to be “terminated” in order to suspend the 2020 presidential election results, more and more Republicans are quietly and begrudgingly acknowledging the seriousness of their plight and the implications for their present and future. …

One does not have to be a Democrat or a liberal, an independent or a moderate, to see that things have taken a turn in this country. Now, Republicans are seeing it as well, albeit reluctantly. They know there’s a problem, but they remain hesitant to file for divorce, to end a relationship that’s costing them not only elections, but their very identity as a party. CONTINUED

Charlie Cook

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About four-in-ten U.S. adults believe humanity is ‘living in the end times’

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Periods of catastrophe and anxiety, such as the coronavirus pandemic, have historically led some people to anticipate that the destruction of the world as we know it – the “end times” – is near. This thinking often has a religious component that draws on sacred scripture. In Christianity, for example, these beliefs include expectations that Jesus will return to Earth after or amid a time of great turmoil.

In the United States, 39% of adults say they believe “we are living in the end times,” while 58% say they do not believe we are living in the end times, according to a recent Pew Research Center survey. CONTINUED

Jeff Diamant, Pew Research Center

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What Can Losing ‘22 Dem Candidates Tell Us About ‘24 Priorities?

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In politics, losing isn’t always a career ender. Presidents Barack Obama and George W. Bush both lost U.S. House contests before winning statewide office. …

In recent years, however, thanks to the increasing nationalization of our politics, down-ballot candidates can quickly build a brand that goes far beyond the borders of their state. In 2018, liberal Democrats across the country were wearing BETO for Senate t-shirts and sending contributions to a Georgia Democratic gubernatorial candidate named Stacey Abrams. …

In fact, the types of ‘losers’ that Democrats have become attached to in recent years tells us more about what the party is most hopeful or worried about for the upcoming election than it does about the future for these up-and-coming candidates. In 2018, Democrats saw in Abrams and O’Rourke a pathway to opening up the sunbelt. Two years later, Democrats hold both senate seats in Arizona and Georgia, and hold the Governor’s seat in Arizona. CONTINUED

Amy Walter, Cook Political Report with Amy Walter

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Biden, Congress Job Ratings Unchanged After Midterm Elections

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Americans’ job approval ratings of President Joe Biden and Congress are stable in the wake of the elections, which saw Democrats lose their majority in the House but still perform better than expected by averting the high number of seat losses typically seen for the president’s party in midterm years.

At 40%, Biden’s approval rating is identical to Gallup’s final preelection reading in October and in line with most of his ratings since September 2021. Approval of Congress, at 22%, is essentially unchanged from October’s 21% and similar to ratings since August. CONTINUED

Megan Brenan, Gallup

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Negativity about the president, economy, and direction of the country persists

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While the Democrats did better than expected in the midterm elections, the public’s opinion of President Biden’s job performance, the national economy, and the direction of the country is stable but still negative.

Overall, 43% of the public approve of how Biden is handling his job, unchanged from the AP-NORC survey in October. Fifty-five percent disapprove.

The Democrats continue to have a positive view of Biden’s job performance as Republicans remain extremely negative. CONTINUED

AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research

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