Americans support giving weapons to Ukraine — but that support declines with Russia’s threats

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American sympathies have been with Ukraine in its battle against Russia since Russia invaded in February — but Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky will be asking for more than sympathy in his in-person address to Congress that is scheduled for Wednesday night. President Joe Biden is expected to announce during Zelensky’s visit that the United States will give Ukraine the Patriot missile defense system, but there is opposition among Americans in the latest Economist/YouGov Poll — with slightly more opposed to giving money than to giving weapons. CONTINUED

Linley Sanders & Kathy Frankovic, YouGov

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Lessons in polling from Elon Musk

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Taking any Twitter poll seriously is a bad idea. Making business decisions via Twitter poll is an even worse idea. Elon Musk seems determined to do both, polling Twitter users on policy changes and even his status at the company (although as of this writing, he has not clearly acknowledged or commented on poll results saying he should step down).

On the methodological side, opt-in polls like Musk’s offer little control over who is answering or even whether each vote represents an individual person (Twitter does only allow one vote per account, but nothing stops people from creating many accounts). …

The lessons from Musk’s Twitter polls show how we should treat any poll we come across. The basic question of “does this represent who it seems to represent?” should anchor how any consumer views a poll. In Twitter’s case, the answer is no. CONTINUED

Natalie Jackson, National Journal

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The Public’s Health Care Priorities For The New Congress

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With the rising cost of living at the top of the public’s mind, the latest KFF Health Tracking poll finds that the public wants lawmakers to prioritize the economy and combatting inflation in the upcoming Congressional term. When asked specifically about health care priorities for Congress, passing a law to make health care costs more transparent to patients tops the list, with 60% calling this a top priority. And nearly three years into the pandemic and at a time when government COVID-19 funding may come to an end, three in ten (31%) say Congress should prioritize continuing funding for COVID-19 vaccines and treatment.

In the wake of the Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade, President Biden pledged that the first bill he would send to the new Congress would be one to protect abortion rights. And though such a bill has little chance of passing in a divided Congress, this month’s KFF Health Tracking poll finds that two in three adults (65%) say passing a law to make abortion legal in all states is important, including four in ten (42%) who say it should be a top priority for Congress. CONTINUED

Kaiser Family Foundation

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McLaughlin Poll: Trump Is Still the One to Beat

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Our most recent poll of 1,000 likely U.S. voters was conducted between Dec. 9-14, 2022. This poll made news last week, because it differs significantly from several media polls released right before ours.

Importantly, the poll shows former President Trump strongly leading the GOP field for 2024. In fact, our polls show Trump is as strong as ever.

It’s not unusal other polls have different findings. Historically media polls under poll President Trump’s level of support among voters. Our poll was more favorable to President Trump than these recent media polls.

For us it’s déjà vu all over again, except we may have learned from 2016 and 2020. In recent days there have been several media polls downplaying the ability of Donald Trump to win the 2024 presidential election. Do they think that the voters have forgotten the “Hillary Lock” of 2016 and the “Biden Blue Wave” of 2020? Neither happened as they under-polled Trump’s actual voter support. CONTINUED

John McLaughlin & Jim McLaughlin, McLaughlin & Associates

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Will Trump Succeed? Assessing his 2022 record and 2024 chances

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Key Points
• Donald Trump’s bid for a third Republican presidential nomination opens the 2024 presidential election.
• The former president achieved only limited victories in the 2022 national and state elections.
• But the structure of the Republican party provides him with many institutional advantages in the nomination race. CONTINUED

Gerald Pomper, Sabato’s Crystal Ball

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What to Watch in 2023

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Even as we look ahead to the new year, we can be assured that the political media focus will be trained, as it has for the last five years, on Donald Trump—his continuing legal and political troubles, the ‘reckoning’ within the GOP about the former president’s role in the party’s weak midterm performance and the rise of the potential Trump challengers like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

But there are a number of other key developments that I’ll be watching that could give us more insights into what 2024 could bring (as well as what we really learned from the 2022 midterms). CONTINUED

Amy Walter, Cook Political Report with Amy Walter

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