CBS News poll: Inflation, cooperation and…investigation? Americans on what the new Congress should — and shouldn’t — deliver

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Inflation remains a concern, and Americans across the political spectrum want Congress to focus on it, amid the usual calls for bipartisanship from most of the nation. We also see splits within the Republicans’ rank and file over how to best use their newly minted House majority, through cooperation or investigation, and on the impact of “MAGA” Republicans.

For starters, big bipartisan majorities say Congress should address inflation, reduce crime, and protect Social Security and Medicare.

But how to get there? Almost half of Republicans want their House delegation to work with Democrats on matters where they can find common ground, at least in principle. The other half want House Republicans to focus on stopping President Biden and Democrats. “MAGA” Republicans are especially likely to prioritize opposition, a stance that also puts them apart from Americans’ views overall. CONTINUED

Anthony Salvanto, Fred Backus & Jennifer De Pinto, CBS News

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How ‘representative’ is the 118th Congress?

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After days of false starts, the House voted Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) as the new speaker, and the 118th Congress was sworn in. But the demographic makeup of the new House and Senate may raise some questions about how truly “representative” of the nation those bodies are. The figures around gender, race and religion are notably different from the broader American population.

Let’s start with the most obvious difference, gender. Women make up about half of the employed workforce in the United States and they make up more than half of the U.S. population overall, but they still lag in representation in Congress. CONTINUED

Dante Chinni, NBC News

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Gold-standard polls got it right in 2022. Others did not

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Over the New Year’s holiday weekend, the New York Times published a 4,000-word article noting how some political polls, as well as the polling aggregators, overstated Republicans’ strength in key midterm races, feeding the narrative of a coming “Red Wave” that never came to be.

But there’s a far simpler polling story from the 2022 midterms to tell: Gold-standard polls — those that conduct their surveys via cell phone interviews, have longstanding reputations and remain politically neutral — had a strong cycle.

It was the other polls — with more opaque methodologies and more partisan leanings — that didn’t fare as well. CONTINUED

Mark Murray, NBC News

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Polls show Americans are divided on the significance of January 6

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Today marks two years since Americans turned on their televisions to watch something that many thought was impossible—a violent mob attacking the Capitol of the United States with the intention of disrupting the Electoral College vote count. …

Some days of violence, such as the December 7 attack on Pearl Harbor and the September 11 attack on the Twin Towers and the Pentagon, become symbols of national unity and resolve. The evidence so far suggests that January 6 will not join their ranks. It is more likely that to future generations, the day the U.S. Capitol was stormed will serve as a reminder of the deep political divisions that characterized the current era of American politics. CONTINUED

William A. Galston, Brookings Institution

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Kevin McCarthy’s flailing bid for Speaker of the House is not (only) about ideological differences

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… Students of history and political science alike may note that extra-ideological factors are common in determining who wins leadership elections. Speakers have included both members near the middle and extremes of the distribution of ideological scores for their party, for example.

Yet what is different this time is that the two-party system has created a vast ideological divide between the parties — and relative uniformity of beliefs within them. McCarthy’s supporters and detractors alike share most of the same beliefs. …

What we have in Congress today is not an ends-against-the-middle battle for control of the House. We have one characterized by many different demands — about personality and politics, but mostly about the various processes of legislating — being made of an establishment politician by an unruly gang of mostly, but not entirely, outsiders.

That is an important difference from the way the media characterizes the battle, and indeed from most other battles within the Republican caucus today. But it is an important and profound difference — one that could have profound impacts on the way the House operates in the next Congress. CONTINUED

G. Elliott Morris, Politics by the Numbers

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The ‘spoiler caucus’ is creating chaos

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… At this point (Thursday afternoon), with 201 Republicans supporting McCarthy and 20 still opposed, 10 percent of the Republican conference members are dictating what the other 90 percent can and can’t do. …

History shows us that political parties, wherever they are found, almost always have a few rebels and radicals in the ranks pushing hard for change. It’s one of the reasons the House speakership has always been such a difficult and demanding job. It requires a leader with the ability to balance the interests of the country, the members and the electoral coalition that delivered the House majority to his or her party. Not an easy job under the best of circumstances, made even more difficult without a unified conference. …

Until the conference is working together again to move forward, the 20 objectors are achieving little at great cost to whoever is the next speaker. When a tiny minority can dominate the majority, you have a structural problem that threatens party effectiveness. This is not a sustainable doctrine for a working majority coalition or choosing leadership. CONTINUED

David Winston (Winston Group), Roll Call

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