Reason To Believe: How and why irrationality takes hold, and what do to about it

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… Why do people believe in outlandish conspiracy theories, such as that Covid-19 was a plot by Bill Gates to implant trackable microchips in our bodies? Or in blatant fake news, such as that Joe Biden called Trump supporters “dregs of society”? Or in paranormal woo-woo, like astrology, extra-sensory perception (ESP), and spiritual energy in pyramids and crystals?

It won’t do to give the Spockian answer that humans are simply irrational. Our hunter-gatherer ancestors lived by their wits, outsmarting animals with traps, poisons, and ambushes, while protecting themselves from the elements with fire, clothing, and shelter. It was this ingenuity that allowed mankind, according to the definition by Ambrose Bierce, to “infest the whole habitable earth and Canada.” Since then our species has plumbed the nature of matter, life, and mind, has slipped the surly bonds of Earth to explore other planets, and has blunted the scourges of war, pestilence and famine, doubling our life expectancy. Even the everyday feats of holding a job, keeping food in the fridge, and getting the kids clothed, fed, and off to school on time require feats of reasoning that are beyond the ken of our best AI.

How, then, can we explain the pandemic of poppycock? My best answer comes in four parts. CONTINUED

Steven Pinker (Harvard), Persuasion

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Joe Biden is gaining ground. But Democrats want someone else in 2024.

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President Biden notched significant victories in 2022: He signed deals on climate change, infrastructure and gun control, and Democrats expanded their Senate majority in the midterm elections.

But despite these accomplishments, only 47 percent of Democrats want him to seek a second term.

Biden’s numbers are trending upwards: In November and December polls, more than 40 percent of Democrats typically said they wanted him to run, while less than 40 percent said the same in September. But more than half of Democrats still say “no” or “I’m not sure” to a Biden reelection campaign. CONTINUED

David Byler, Washington Post

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Short-Term Inflation Expectations Continue to Decline, Tick up Slightly in Longer Term

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The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the December 2022 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that inflation expectations continued to decline in the short term and were unchanged over the medium term. Longer-term inflation expectations edged up slightly. Household spending expectations fell sharply in December, while income growth expectations rose to a new series high. Home price expectations rose slightly, but remain below their pre-pandemic levels. Households’ perceptions about their current financial situation and their expectations about their future financial situation one year from now improved in December. CONTINUED

Federal Reserve Bank of New York

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McCarthy speaker saga shows Trump is far from untouchable ahead of 2024

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Kevin McCarthy’s seven-year-plus dream to become House speaker finally became reality early Saturday morning. The California Republican’s tumultuous journey concluded after six Republican holdouts voted “present,” allowing him to win on the 15th ballot with a lower majority threshold.

McCarthy credited Donald Trump for his support in the speaker’s race, and the former president was quick to bask in the glory of McCarthy’s victory.

Make no mistake, though: McCarthy’s struggle to win the speaker’s gavel is only the latest indication that Trump’s brand among Republicans has been significantly weakened. Trump is no doubt still a powerful presence in the GOP, but he’s very vulnerable in his bid to win the Republican presidential nomination for a third time. CONTINUED

Harry Enten, CNN

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CBS News poll — Americans’ views on 2023: Things get better, but still not good

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The year 2023 opens with slightly better — though not good — assessments of the nation than we saw last year, tempered by pessimism about plenty of issues. More say things in the country are going well than said so at the start of 2022.

Ratings on today’s economy aren’t good, but they’re higher than before the fall midterm campaign. The job market stands out as a bright spot, even as concerns about inflation continue. Fewer voters think the economy’s direction is getting worse than thought so in October.

Americans feel very positive and optimistic about the fight against COVID — despite concern among some scientists about winter outbreaks — which marks quite a change from the start of 2022. CONTINUED

Anthony Salvanto, Fred Backus & Jennifer De Pinto, CBS News

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CBS News poll: Inflation, cooperation and…investigation? Americans on what the new Congress should — and shouldn’t — deliver

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Inflation remains a concern, and Americans across the political spectrum want Congress to focus on it, amid the usual calls for bipartisanship from most of the nation. We also see splits within the Republicans’ rank and file over how to best use their newly minted House majority, through cooperation or investigation, and on the impact of “MAGA” Republicans.

For starters, big bipartisan majorities say Congress should address inflation, reduce crime, and protect Social Security and Medicare.

But how to get there? Almost half of Republicans want their House delegation to work with Democrats on matters where they can find common ground, at least in principle. The other half want House Republicans to focus on stopping President Biden and Democrats. “MAGA” Republicans are especially likely to prioritize opposition, a stance that also puts them apart from Americans’ views overall. CONTINUED

Anthony Salvanto, Fred Backus & Jennifer De Pinto, CBS News

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