Trump and His Allegedly Disloyal White Evangelical Supporters

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In a recent interview, David Brody of the Christian Broadcasting Network asked former president Donald Trump what he thought about the reticence of some white evangelical Protestant leaders, such as Southern Baptist megachurch pastor Robert Jeffress, to endorse his candidacy for president in 2024. Trump caused quite a stir by accusing white evangelical Protestants of being “disloyal” to him. …

While we know Trump has a narcissistic obsession with displays of submissiveness from individual leaders, endorsements were never the key to his support among rank and file white evangelical Protestants. While white evangelical elites were arguing over the appropriateness of supporting Trump in 2016, white evangelical voters were steadily lining up behind him. Despite other evangelical-friendly alternatives such as Mike Huckabee (remember him?) and Ted Cruz, by the time Super Tuesday rolled around, Trump handily mopped the floor with them from Mississippi to Michigan. CONTINUED

White Too Long by Robert P. Jones

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What Does Threat to Democracy Mean To Swing Voters?

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On the eve of the midterm elections last fall, President Biden delivered a speech in which he argued that the central issue for 2022 was the threat to our democracy. Many pundits, and even some high-profile Democrats, criticized Biden’s messaging. After all, poll after poll showed that the economy and inflation were the most critical concerns for voters, while “protecting democracy” registered in the single digits. …

The day after the midterms, however, it was Biden who had the last laugh. “Our democracy has been tested in recent years, but with their votes, the American people have spoken and proven once again that democracy is who we are.”

The progressive group End Citizens United, agreed wholeheartedly with Biden’s assessment. …

To get a better sense of how swing voters processed the threat to democracy issue in 2022, and how they are thinking about the issue going forward, ECU conducted a series of focus groups with key swing voters. I was able to listen in on three of them. One featured white, non-college women, one was with white, college men and the final group was Latino men. Impact, a Democratic polling firm, moderated the groups. CONTINUED

Amy Walter, Cook Political Report with Amy Walter

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Republican voters think DeSantis would be more likely to beat Biden, but prefer Trump

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Republican voters think that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has a slight edge over former President Donald Trump in a hypothetical election match-up against President Joe Biden, according to new polling by the Economist/YouGov. In a Trump vs. Biden match-up, registered voters give Biden a 4 percentage-point lead: 42% of registered voters say they’d choose Trump and 46% say Biden. When DeSantis is pitted against Biden, the two are tied: 43% say they’d vote for DeSantis and 43% say they’d vote for Biden. CONTINUED

Taylor Orth, YouGov

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2024 Governors Races: A First Look

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Key Points
• North Carolina’s open-seat race is clearly the marquee contest of 2024’s gubernatorial races. It starts as a Toss-up.
• The other contests start with clear favorites despite several open seats.
• If popular Republican incumbents run for another term, the GOP should be in great shape to hold New Hampshire and Vermont. But they would be great Democratic opportunities as open seats.
• Mississippi moves toCrystal Ball 2023/2024 gubernatorial ratings Likely Republican following the entry of a credible Democratic candidate after our initial 2023 rating release last week. CONTINUED

J. Miles Coleman, Sabato’s Crystal Ball

Crystal Ball 2023/2024 gubernatorial ratings

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Why Debt-Ceiling Brinkmanship Feels Different This Time

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Business, community, and government leaders are growing increasingly alarmed that the populist and ideologically conservative House Republicans may endanger Congress’ ability to approve an increase in the federal debt ceiling, a move crucial to avoiding the nation’s first-ever default and a calamity in the financial markets.

The federal public debt ceiling has been either raised or suspended about a dozen times over the last decade, often after considerable uncertainty and very messy fights. One might assume that the pending debt-limit fight will end much like others, when Congress and the president reached the precipice only to find an out at the 11th hour.

That likely will be the case this year as well. But a confluence of events increases the chances of a very different result. CONTINUED

Charlie Cook

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How Republicans view their party and key issues facing the country as the 118th Congress begins

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Republicans now hold a narrow majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, the first time they have controlled the chamber in four years. The GOP’s first weeks in power have been marked by drama – most notably by Kevin McCarthy’s protracted, 15-ballot victory to become House speaker.

As the new Congress gets underway, here’s a look at the expectations that Republicans in the United States have for the next two years, as well as their views on key issues and the future of the Republican Party, based on recent Pew Research Center surveys. CONTINUED

Carroll Doherty, Pew Research Center

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