Continuing support for U.S. involvement a year into the war between Russia and Ukraine

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A year into Russia’s war with Ukraine, most of the public still thinks the United States should play at least some role in the war effort. However, support for supplying weapons or funds to Ukraine, accepting Ukrainian refugees, or imposing economic sanctions against Russia has declined since last spring. And Democrats and Republicans alike are increasingly likely to prioritize limiting damage to the U.S. economy over effective sanctions.

Overall, support for some level of U.S. involvement in the war remains high. Most of the public believe the United States should play a major (26%) or minor (49%) role in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Twenty-four percent think the United States shouldn’t have a role at all. CONTINUED

AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research

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Dissatisfaction With U.S. Gun Laws Hits New High

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Americans’ dissatisfaction with U.S. gun laws has risen to 63%, the highest by one percentage point in Gallup’s 23-year trend, and an increase of seven points over the past year. At the same time, satisfaction with gun policy has fallen by the same amount to 34%, tying the lowest reading on record. …

Since 2001, Republicans and Republican-leaning independents have been much more satisfied than Democrats and Democratic leaners with the nation’s gun policies. That gulf persists today, as 54% of Republicans and a record-low 14% of Democrats are satisfied. CONTINUED

Megan Brenan, Gallup

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For Haley, the horse race is just getting started

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We are still about a year out from anyone voting in any 2024 presidential primaries, but primary-poll-a-palooza is well underway. …

But basing one’s assessment of what could happen on horse-race polls now is folly. Anyone following horse-race polls now is basically like a cat chasing a laser: You think you know where the race stands, and then it moves. …

The 2012 Republican primary race is a great illustration of how amusingly unstable primary preferences—and therefore horse-race polls—can be, even as the primary contests approach. One candidate after another, from Rick Perry to Herman Cain, started in single digits, surged ahead of eventual nominee Mitt Romney in polling averages, and then fell back as the next candidate surged—a total of five times. CONTINUED

Natalie Jackson, National Journal

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How the $500 Billion Attention Industry Really Works

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Your attention is constantly being bought, packaged and sold. Tim Hwang explains how.

The Ezra Klein Show podcast

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The future for the Republican and Democratic parties

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Republicans and Democrats alike are expressing concerns about the direction of the parties. Democrats are more optimistic than pessimistic about the future of their party (44% vs 26%), while Republicans are about equally optimistic (38%) and pessimistic (36%) about where their party is headed. Few people, regardless of party identification, have a positive opinion of how Congress is doing its job, and most of the public would like to see more compromise in the Capitol. …

About a third of both Democrats and Republicans are unsure of who they want to lead their party, and there is no clear leader named for either party. The most common response among Democrats is Biden (12%) and among Republicans, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is named by 22% and Donald Trump is named by 20%. CONTINUED

AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research

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These are the GOP voters who may decide Trump’s fate in 2024

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Donald Trump’s fate in the 2024 GOP presidential race may pivot on whether he can retain the surprisingly broad support he secured in 2016 from an unexpected group of Republican voters.

Probably the biggest surprise in Trump’s march to the GOP nomination in 2016 was the large number of votes he attracted among White evangelical Christians, who many analysts expected to resist a twice-divorced New Yorker who had earlier expressed support for abortion rights. The key to that breakthrough was Trump’s success in carving a new fault line in the GOP primary electorate. Traditionally, a critical divide among Republican voters has been between those who identify as evangelical Christians and those who do not. But Trump in 2016 split the GOP electorate more along lines of education, drawing commanding support from voters without a four-year college degree, whether or not they identified as evangelical Christians. …

With some prominent evangelical figures joining other GOP leaders in openly suggesting the party should move on from Trump in 2024, the former president will find it difficult to build a winning primary coalition if he cannot replicate the elevated level of blue-collar evangelical support he achieved in his stunning race to the nomination in 2016. CONTINUED

Ronald Brownstein, CNN

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