When is a poll a quality poll? with Natalie Jackson

How can you tell when a poll is actually high quality? Natalie Jackson, research director at PRRI, joins us on this week’s episode of The Downballot to discuss that and more. Jackson tells us the indicators she looks for to determine whether a survey is worth taking seriously, what she thinks the future of polling aggregation ought to look like, and why white evangelical Christians are the real outliers when it comes to religious groups’ views on abortion.

David Nir & David Beard, The Downballot podcast


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Americans Showing Increased Concern About Immigration

Americans’ satisfaction with the level of immigration into the U.S. has fallen six percentage points over the past year, from 34% in January 2022 to 28% today. This is the lowest reading in a decade, though not the least satisfied Americans have been on this issue over the past 23 years. …

The flip side of 28% of Americans being satisfied with immigration is that 63% are dissatisfied. In a follow-up question, most of the dissatisfied group (64%, equivalent to 40% of U.S. adults) say they want immigration decreased. CONTINUED

Lydia Saad, Gallup


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The False Choices Facing the Republican Party

The word “rudderless” was used frequently to describe the Republican Party during the raucous battle for House speaker last month. But don’t forget that in 2020, the party dispensed with a platform altogether, or that it stumbled in the 2022 midterms with candidates more focused on relitigating the last election than offering a credible set of ideas for the future. The GOP has been adrift and lacking a coherent agenda for several years now.

There are signs, though, of a growing impatience on the right with the angsty populism and 24/7 culture wars that have characterized the Trump-era GOP. This offers an opportunity for Republicans who want to break from the politics of personality that has dominated the GOP during and after Donald Trump’s presidency, and develop an agenda based on everyday concerns shared by most Republican voters — and most Americans. CONTINUED

Stephen Goldsmith (Harvard) & Ryan Streeter (American Enterprise Institute), Politico Magazine


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Super Bowl, NFL defy partisan trends in U.S.

Commonality is a hard thing to find in the United States today. Streaming services and the Internet have fragmented how we consume news and entertainment and the partisan divide in Washington impacted everything from where we live to our consumer choices.

Not everything is split down party lines, however, and we can thank the NFL and the annual sporting/cultural event known as the Super Bowl.

Even if you are indifferent to football or actively dislike it, it is hard to argue against the big game’s importance as a cultural adhesive for Americans. Its impact can be seen in a wide range of numbers. CONTINUED

Dante Chinni, NBC News


The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

To the Supreme Court, the 20th Century Was Wrongly Decided

When, in the Dobbs decision, Samuel Alito declared that Roe v. Wade had been “wrongly decided,” he succinctly stated the credo of a resurgent revanchist coalition that believes the Twentieth Century was wrongly decided. Over the last two decades, the Supreme Court has been instrumental in advancing this coalition’s agenda, which is to dismantle the New Deal order and reverse the civil and social rights gains made since the postwar period.

The execution of this agenda has been nothing short of a slow-motion coup against our freedoms. The Supreme Court has not only transformed itself into a democratically unaccountable lawmaking body; it has used this illegitimate power to create a one-way ratchet that makes the rest of our system less democratically accountable. …

The campaign to repeal and replace the 20th century is an extremely well-funded enterprise, organized by people who have never made any secret of their plans. None of this is happening by accident. Yet for the most part, media coverage of SCOTUS continues to focus on the details of the individual cases on the docket: the arguments each side is putting forth, the likelihood that certain justices will find those arguments persuasive, and what a “win” for either side could look like. In the context of our current crisis, however, doing this is like narrating each segment of a bullet’s trajectory without naming the assassin or his target.

In this post, we’ll take a few steps back from that “what did the bullet do today” perspective. CONTINUED

Michael Podhorzer, Weekend Reading


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Why Biden shouldn’t dismiss his negative poll numbers

President Joe Biden says he’s not ready to make a decision on whether to run for reelection. He did, however, dismiss polls that have cast a negative light on his 2024 chances, telling Telemundo, “Do you know any polling that’s accurate these days?”

Biden is upset because of recent polling findings that a lot of Democrats would be happy if he didn’t run and that put former President Donald Trump ahead of Biden (though within the margin of error) in a hypothetical 2024 contest.

To be clear, I believe Biden would very likely win the Democratic nomination and would have a good chance of winning a general election. But I have to defend the polling he went after. CONTINUED

Harry Enten, CNN


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