Not Biden vs. Trump Again! The Disgruntled Voters Who Could Decide the 2024 Election

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Key Points
• Joe Biden’s approval numbers are weak and are reminiscent of the numbers from some recent presidents who lost reelection.
• However, Biden is still very competitive in polling with the current leader for the Republican presidential nomination, Donald Trump, in part because voters still have less negative attitudes toward him than they do toward Trump, according to the 2022 American National Elections Studies Pilot Study.
• A key bloc of voters who would prefer someone other than Biden or Trump skew conservative, but are also alienated by Trump’s actions around the events of Jan. 6, 2021. CONTINUED

Alan I. Abramowitz (Emory), Sabato’s Crystal Ball

2024 presidential vote intention by Biden job rating

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Stop Freaking Out Over Every 2024 Poll

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Not long after the Washington Post/ABC poll was released on Sunday, the “hot take” machines started whirring furiously online and inside the Beltway. The poll, which showed former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden by six points (45% to 39%), “is an outlier,” cried many left-leaning commentators as well as those in the Ron DeSantis camp who argue that the Florida governor is the most electable GOP candidate. …

At the risk of sounding like a broken record on this point, I stress the following: when it comes to reading polls — especially polls that test two very well-known and defined candidates like Biden and Trump — I am once again asking for people to focus on the vote share (what percent of vote each candidate getting) and not on the margin (how many points one candidate is ahead of or behind the other). CONTINUED

Amy Walter, Cook Political Report with Amy Walter

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Asking Inclusive Questions About Gender: Phase 1

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Gender is an important piece of demographic information that Gallup collects in its polls worldwide. Attitudes and experiences often differ in important ways by gender, and collecting this information is crucial to understanding people’s experiences. …

Generational changes in gender identity may fundamentally change how sex and gender are measured and how datasets are weighted to accurately reflect sex and gender. To address these changes, Gallup began testing new gender questions. We reviewed the literature to explore how other surveys and statistical systems are collecting gender data. We used what we learned to construct our own question versions and conducted several rounds of testing. CONTINUED

Jenny Marlar, Gallup

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What GOP Voters Have Told Me Since Trump’s Indictment

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Donald Trump is the clear GOP front-runner for 2024. This isn’t news—he has dominated most polling since the day Joe Biden was sworn in. Despite leading the GOP to a historically bad midterm, being saddled with a dismal 25 percent approval rating, and becoming the first former president to be indicted, his prospects for winning the Republican nomination are only growing stronger. Since the indictment, Republicans—including those running against him—have rallied to Trump’s defense. His fundraising has surged. And he’s racked up endorsements. …

One of the peculiar pathologies of Republican-primary politics is that even Trump’s competition feels unable to criticize him. Case in point: After Trump was indicted, DeSantis called the move “un-American,” Pence called it “an outrage,” and Haley said it was “more about revenge than it is about justice.”

They are in a trap of their own making. For eight years, Republican leaders have defended Trump at every turn—from the Access Hollywood tape to “very fine people on both sides.” From the first impeachment to January 6 to the second impeachment. They thought that by covering for Trump they were tapping into his power, but they were actually giving away their own—mortgaging themselves and their reputations to Trump’s lies and depravities. By defending him then, they have made it impossible to credibly accuse him of anything now. CONTINUED

Sarah Longwell (Longwell Partners), The Atlantic

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Most U.S. adults say the abortion pill mifepristone should stay on the market, Post-ABC poll finds

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Two-thirds of Americans say the abortion drug mifepristone, used in the majority of abortions in the United States, should remain on the market, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.

The poll finds that 66 percent of U.S. adults say mifepristone should remain on the market, while 24 percent say it should be taken off the market. Just under half, 47 percent, say access to mifepristone should be kept as is; 12 percent say it should remain on the market but be more restricted than it is now. …

Nearly a year after the Supreme Court overturned its 1973 Roe v. Wade decision, two-thirds of Americans say they oppose the decision to eliminate the constitutional right to an abortion, including 54 percent who oppose it “strongly.” CONTINUED

Emily Guskin, Washington Post

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More say politics, not the law, drive Supreme Court decisions

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Ten months after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the constitutional right to an abortion, two-thirds of Americans continue to oppose its decision — and 51% now think its justices base their rulings mainly on their personal political opinions, not on the law.

Early in 2022, before the abortion ruling, the public divided evenly, 46%-45%, on whether the justices’ rulings were based mainly on the law or on their own political preferences. Today, well fewer than half, 39%, think Supreme Court rulings are based mainly on the law, a 7-point drop in this fundamental measure of confidence in the court. …

Results of this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, underscore broad and continued majority support for abortion rights in the United States, a contrast to the state-by-state upheaval prompted by the high court’s ruling last summer. …

Similar to attitudes on Dobbs, 66% overall say the abortion drug mifepristone should remain on the market. CONTINUED

Gary Langer, ABC News

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